Updated August 23, 2026
Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula will meet in an all-American Cincinnati Open final on Sunday, August 23, with Gauff looking to win the tournament for the second time and Pegula trying to claim her first Cincinnati championship. The current market makes Gauff a modest favorite, as both players look to make a statement with the US Open just a week away.
The Cincinnati Open final presents one of the most intriguing matchups possible ahead of the US Open: 2 of the 4 highest-ranked American women facing each other for a WTA 1000 title. Pegula enters as the No. 3 player in the rankings, while Gauff is No. 4, and their rivalry is remarkably balanced. Pegula leads the career series 5-4, but Gauff won their most recent meeting, beating Pegula 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 in the Wimbledon quarterfinals in July. They have also split their last 4 meetings, adding another layer of uncertainty to Sunday's final.
The biggest reason to side with Gauff is how efficiently she has played throughout the Cincinnati draw. She opened with a difficult comeback against Liudmila Samsonova, winning 2-6, 6-4, 6-1, but has become progressively more convincing. Gauff then beat Ann Li 6-1, 7-6(3), Marie Bouzkova 6-3, 6-2, Marta Kostyuk 6-2, 6-2 and Sara Bejlek 6-4, 6-1. She has dropped just 1 set across 5 matches and has spent 7 hours, 38 minutes on court.
Gauff's semifinal performance against Bejlek was encouraging. Gauff won 60 of 98 total points, produced 20 winners and converted 6 of 7 break-point opportunities against a player who upset Aryna Sabalenka earlier in the week. Gauff also won 77% of her first-serve points and 53% behind her second serve. Those numbers matter against Pegula because the 32-year-old is one of the better ball-strikers on the WTA Tour and is capable of turning extended baseline exchanges into a contest of small margins.
Gauff's serve has also been a major storyline during this tournament. She has made 61% of her first serves and won 76% of those points across her 5 Cincinnati matches. She has also hit 25 aces, compared with 18 for Pegula. Most importantly, Gauff has been much better at protecting her service games. She has been broken 8 times in the tournament, while Pegula has been broken 20 times. Gauff has saved 67% of the break points she has faced, compared with 53% for Pegula.
Pegula's path to the final, however, deserves considerable respect. She defeated Simona Waltert, Emma Navarro, Sorana Cirstea, Amanda Anisimova, and defending champion Iga Swiatek. Her quarterfinal against Anisimova went to a deciding-set tiebreak, and she then had to spend 2 hours, 47 minutes beating Swiatek 7-5, 4-6, 6-4 in the semifinal.
Against Swiatek, Pegula won 117 total points to Swiatek's 112, hit 4 aces, and committed just 2 double faults. Pegula won 64% of her first-serve points and 42% of her second-serve points while converting 7 of 18 break-point chances. She also broke Swiatek 7 times in a match that featured 13 total service breaks.
Pegula tends to thrive by taking the ball early and keeping rallies compact, while Gauff can pressure her opponent with a combination of speed, defensive coverage and increasingly aggressive serving. Gauff's improved first-serve production gives her a way to avoid being dragged into too many neutral baseline exchanges, and her ability to turn defense into offense should create additional pressure on Pegula's serve.
At -143, the Gauff moneyline is playable because our model's 61% win probability is above the market's 58.8% implied probability. The edge is relatively modest, so bettors should avoid chasing the price if it moves substantially higher. Our ceiling of -156 gives the wager a defined limit. Above that number, the statistical advantage largely disappears. But for now, Gauff is the way to go in the betting markets here.
