2026 Olympic Nordic Combined Large Hill Prediction & Preview
Updated February 12, 2026
Updated February 12, 2026
The men’s Nordic Combined Individual Large Hill/10 km event at the 2026 Winter Olympics remains highly anticipated for fans of skiing and ski jumping. Staying true to the Nordic combined format, this event pairs a ski jumping session on the large hill at Predazzo with a 10 km cross‑country race, using performance on the jump to determine staggered start times for the ski portion. Norway’s Jens Luraas Oftebro won gold in the nordic combined normal hill. Can he go 2/2 in these Winter Olympics? Continue reading to get my prediction for this event.
Here are the current odds for the Nordic Combined Individual Large Hill/10 km:
One major narrative surrounding this event is the momentum gained from the normal hill results. Oftebro’s dramatic victory in the normal hill/10 km competition showcased his tactical cross‑country strength, overcoming an early deficit after the jump to clinch gold. This result highlights the importance of conditioning and pacing in the ski segment and suggests that even if an athlete doesn’t dominate the large hill jump, they can still contend with a strong cross‑country race.
Another key storyline is how the absence of some legendary names has opened opportunities for rising stars. Previous seasons saw dominant performances from athletes like Jarl Magnus Riiber, who took gold in the large hill/10 km at the FIS Nordic World Ski Championships in 2025, but such veterans are no longer as prominent at these Olympic Games. Riiber’s past results remain a benchmark for performance, but this year’s field includes a long list of contenders aiming to capitalize on his absence.
National representation trends are also noteworthy. Austria and Germany have consistently fielded strong Nordic combined teams with depth in both jumping and skiing, pushing Norway – historically the dominant nation in this discipline – to adapt its strategies. The large hill event tends to reward outstanding jumpers, and Austria’s Lamparter and Germany’s Schmid and Geiger have shown formidable form through the winter season. In contrast, Oftebro’s strength in the cross‑country phase poses a tactical threat if he finds himself within reach after the jump segment.
Pick: Johannes Lamparter ATS PRO
Confidence: 4/5
From a betting perspective, Lamparter’s price offers a balanced mix of value and a decent win probability. While Oftebro’s dramatic normal hill victory reinforces his overall quality, the large hill’s emphasis on jump performance slightly tilts the edge toward athletes known for powerful leaps off the ramp. Germany’s Schmid and Geiger provide strong alternative plays and their slightly longer odds could appeal to bettors seeking better returns if conditions shift or if they outperform expectations in the cross‑country phase. But I'm going with Lamparter here to hold off his main threat from Norway, along with the rest of the field.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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