Iraq return to the World Cup stage with a difficult opening assignment against a Norway side built around one of the most direct attacking profiles in the tournament. Norway are clear favorites in the market, with prices around -525 on the moneyline, Iraq at around +1250, and the draw near +600. The spread sits around Norway -1.5 at -175, while Over 2.5 goals is priced near -175. That tells the story clearly enough: the market expects Norway to win, and the sharper question is whether they create enough clear chances to cover the handicap.
Iraq vs Norway Pick
Pick: Norway -1.5
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Iraq vs Norway Match Preview
Norway arrive with a major attacking ceiling after winning all 8 qualifiers, scoring 37 goals and conceding only 5. Erling Haaland scored 16 times in that qualifying run, and his partnership with Martin Ødegaard gives Norway a reliable route through low blocks. Alexander Sørloth adds another penalty-box target, while Antonio Nusa gives them pace and width on the left.
Iraq’s path is very different. Graham Arnold’s side are likely to defend in a compact 4-4-2, protect central spaces and try to use Aymen Hussein or Ali Al-Hamadi as outlets when Norway commit numbers forward. That can keep them competitive for a stretch, but it also invites pressure. If Iraq spend long periods pinned back, Norway’s crossing volume, second balls and set-piece threat should eventually tell.
The main risk with Norway -1.5 is game state. If Norway score early, Iraq may have to step out and the match can open up. If Iraq keep it 0-0 into the second half, Norway’s moneyline is safer than the handicap. Still, the available squad quality points strongly to Norway, and the score projection makes the two-goal spread the better betting angle than laying a heavy moneyline price.
Predicted Lineups
- Iraq predicted lineup: Basil; H Ali, Tahseen, Hashim, Doski; Amyn, Sher, Al-Ammari, Bayesh; Al-Hamadi, Hussein.
- Norway predicted lineup: Nyland; Ryerson, Ajer, Heggem, Møller Wolfe; Ødegaard, Berge, Aursnes; Sørloth, Haaland, Nusa.
Betting Insights
Norway’s moneyline price is short, but it is hard to argue with the shape of the market. Iraq need a disciplined defensive performance and likely need Norway to be wasteful in front of goal. Norway, meanwhile, can win this match through several routes: Haaland attacking early crosses, Sørloth pinning defenders, Ødegaard finding runners between the lines, or wide players forcing Iraq’s back line deeper.
The spread is the more useful betting market than the moneyline. Norway -1.5 asks for a two-goal win, but it avoids paying a heavy favorite price and matches the projected flow of the match. Over 2.5 goals also makes sense, although it depends heavily on Norway doing most of the scoring.
Iraq vs Norway Player Props
- Erling Haaland anytime scorer: Around -180. This is the clearest player prop on the board, but the number is short enough that it may be better used in a bet builder than played alone.
- Alexander Sørloth anytime scorer: Worth considering if the price is plus money. He gives Norway another strong box presence and could benefit if Iraq overcommit to Haaland.
- Martin Ødegaard assist: A sensible plus-money prop if available. Norway should have long spells of possession, and Ødegaard is the player most likely to supply the final pass.
- Julian Ryerson assist: Around +200 in some markets. This is a wider-angle option if he starts, as Norway should have chances to create from full-back areas.
Iraq vs Norway Same Game Parlay
SGP Pick: Norway to win, Over 1.5 total goals and Erling Haaland anytime scorer
This same-game parlay follows the most likely match script without needing Iraq to score. Norway should control territory and chance volume, while Haaland remains the most likely first-choice finisher. The safer version is Norway to win and Over 1.5 goals. The higher-upside version adds Haaland anytime scorer.
Iraq vs Norway Model Projection
Score Projection: Iraq 0 – Norway 3
Win Probability: Iraq 8%, Norway 78%
Norway’s 37 qualifying goals are hard to ignore, and Iraq’s best chance is to slow the game rather than trade attacks. Iraq will likely sit deep and allow the Norwegians to control possession, but in Erling Haaland and Alexander Sørloth, Norway possess a pair of physical weapons that are effective regardless of game script.
The pick is Norway -1.5, with a 3-0 score projection. Iraq earned their right to be here, and will do all they can to make Norway work for the opener, but once the first goal comes, the matchup tilts heavily in Norway’s favor. They may have come against higher quality opposition in their friendlies in the build up to the World Cup, but they are yet to face anyone quite like Haaland, who is set to seize his moment in the spotlight with at least one goal.
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