Updated June 15, 2026
Last updated: June 16, 2026. Lineups remain projected until official team sheets are released.
Iraq return to the World Cup stage with a difficult opening assignment against a Norway side built around one of the most direct attacking profiles in the tournament. Norway are clear favorites in the market, with prices around -518 on the moneyline, Iraq around +1225, and the draw still in the +600 range. Over 2.5 goals is priced around -171, indicating that the market expects Norway to win comfortably. The bigger question is whether they create enough clear chances to cover the handicap.
Pick: Norway -1.5
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Norway arrive with one of the highest attacking ceilings in the tournament after winning all 8 qualifiers, scoring 37 goals and conceding only 5. Erling Haaland scored 16 times in that qualifying run, and Norway coach Ståle Solbakken made the matchday plan clear this week: keep giving him chances. With Martin Ødegaard fit and pulling strings in midfield, Norway have the talent to turn long spells of pressure into clear scoring opportunities.
Iraq’s route to the tournament was far more demanding, and Graham Arnold’s side are unlikely to open this game up willingly. Iraq should defend compact, protect central spaces and try to use Aymen Hussein, Ali Al-Hamadi or Ali Jasim as outlets when Norway commit numbers forward. That can keep Iraq competitive for a stretch, but it also invites pressure. If they spend long periods pinned back, Norway’s crossing volume, second balls and set-piece threat should eventually tell.
The main risk with Norway -1.5 is game state. If Norway score early, Iraq may have to step out and the match can open up. If Iraq keep it 0-0 into the second half, Norway’s moneyline is safer than the handicap. Still, the available squad quality points strongly to Norway despite the abundance of shcok results at this tournament so far, and the score projection makes the two-goal spread the better betting angle than laying a heavy moneyline price.
Official starting lineups are not yet released. This article should get one final check when team sheets drop roughly an hour before kickoff.
Oscar Bobb is another Norway attacking option if Solbakken wants a more natural wide profile, while Iraq could still lean slightly more conservative in midfield if Arnold prioritizes structure over transition speed.
Norway’s moneyline price is short, but it is hard to argue with the shape of the market. Iraq need a disciplined defensive performance and likely need Norway to be wasteful in front of goal. Norway, meanwhile, can win this match through several routes: Haaland attacking early crosses, Sørloth pinning defenders, Ødegaard finding runners between the lines, or wide players forcing Iraq’s back line deeper.
The spread is the more useful betting market than the moneyline. Norway -1.5 asks for a two-goal win, but it avoids paying a heavy favorite price and matches the projected flow of the match. Over 2.5 goals also makes sense, although it depends heavily on Norway doing most of the scoring. Norway team total Over 2.5 is another route if available at plus money, but the handicap remains the cleaner primary pick.
The danger is that Iraq are not an automatic pushover. Solbakken specifically highlighted their compact defensive shape and threat from crosses, so this is not a spot to chase an inflated Norway alternate spread unless the price is excellent. Norway -1.5 is aggressive enough.
SGP Pick: Norway to win, Over 1.5 total goals and Erling Haaland anytime scorer
This same-game parlay follows the most likely match script without needing Iraq to score. Norway should control territory and chance volume, while Haaland remains the first-choice finisher and should have penalty equity. The safer version is Norway to win and Over 1.5 total goals. The higher-upside version adds Haaland anytime scorer, although that leg is now expensive in the standalone prop market.
A more aggressive Norway script would be Norway -1.5 and Haaland 2+ shots on target, but that depends on sportsbook availability. The cleanest public-facing build remains Norway win, Over 1.5 goals and Haaland anytime scorer.
Score Projection: Iraq 0 - Norway 3
Win Probability: Iraq 8%, Draw 14%, Norway 78%
Norway’s qualifying output is hard to ignore, and Iraq’s best chance is to slow the game rather than trade attacks. Iraq will likely sit deep and allow the Norwegians to control possession, but in Erling Haaland and Alexander Sørloth (or Jørgen Strand Larsen if Sørloth is ruled out through illness), Norway possess a pair of physical weapons that are effective regardless of game script.
The pick is Norway -1.5, with a 3-0 score projection. Iraq earned their right to be here, and Arnold’s side should be organized enough to make Norway work for the opener. But once the first goal comes, the matchup tilts heavily toward Norway. Haaland enters the tournament fit, sharp and central to everything Norway want to do, and this is a favorable opener for him to make an immediate Golden Boot statement.
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