Premier League Relegation Futures: Prices, Pick & Prediction
Updated October 28, 2026
Premier League Relegation Odds Right Now
What the xG Table Says About the Drop
Updated October 28, 2026
ATS Expert Verdict
“Strip out the City noise and the underlying numbers point at Ipswich. They have the worst expected goal difference in the league, yet trade at just 36¢ to go down, and that's my lead trade. Nottingham Forest No at 84¢ is the safest edge on the board, because Forest have been far better than six points suggests.”
| Club | Buy Yes | American Equivalent | ATS Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry City | 58¢ | -138 | 49% to 63% |
| Hull City | 54¢ | -117 | 35% to 47% |
| Manchester City | 40¢ | +151 | 22% to 27% |
| Ipswich Town | 36¢ | +178 | 50% to 60% |
| Crystal Palace | 28¢ | +257 | 15% to 33% |
| Sunderland | 27¢ | +270 | 37% to 49% |
| Fulham | 19¢ | +426 | 7% to 11% |
| Nottingham Forest | 17¢ | +488 | 3% to 6% |
| Newcastle United | 11.8¢ | +747 | 2% to 6% |
| Bournemouth | 8¢ | +1150 | 1% to 2% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 8¢ | +1150 | 4% to 7% |
| Rest of the field | 7.2¢ or less | +1289 or longer |
| Trade | Buy Price | American | ATS Fair Value | Entry Rule |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Yes | 36¢ | +178 | 50% to 60% | Buy at 42¢ or lower |
| Nottingham Forest No | 84¢ | -525 | 94% to 97% | Buy at 88¢ or lower |
| Manchester City No | 63¢ | -170 | 73% to 78% | Buy at 68¢ or lower |
Eight games is enough for expected goals to start telling you something the table can't. The numbers show a relegation battle that looks quite different from the league standings, and a market that's still mostly pricing the standings.
Ipswich Yes at 36¢ is the pick. Ipswich have ten points, level with Hull and Everton and four clear of the bottom three. Their underlying numbers are the worst in the division.
They've conceded 18.85 xG, the most of any side, and their expected goal difference of -8.24 is more than two goals worse than anyone else's. Their 7.12 expected points are the lowest in the league too, so they're nearly three points ahead of where their performances say they should be.
On my numbers, Ipswich go down somewhere between 50% and 60% of the time. I'd buy up to 42¢.
Nottingham Forest No at 84¢ is the second trade. Forest have six points, which puts them in the bottom three. They also have 15.18 expected points, the biggest gap between performance and results in the league.
Their defense has allowed 9.03 xG, second only to Arsenal, and their +6.72 expected goal difference is among the best in the division. The problem is purely at the other end: six goals from 15.75 xG.
Liam Delap, Dan Ndoye, Igor Jesus and Morgan Gibbs-White have one or two goals each from chances worth far more. That kind of finishing doesn't last a full season.
I put Forest's relegation chance at 3% to 6%. At 84¢, a No share returns 16¢ on what I'd price at 94¢ or better. Buy up to 88¢.
City's relegation price spiked from under 30¢ to more than 60¢ in the week after October 19, when reports suggested the eventual punishment could be heavy enough to guarantee relegation.
Those reports cited anonymous sources and gave no figure. The price has since fallen back toward 37¢, and the order book is still pricing far more risk than I can find.
Start with the arithmetic. City have 21 points from eight games, and their league-best +8.97 expected goal difference has them on course for something in the high 80s. Survival usually takes 35 to 40 points. A deduction would need to be in the region of 50 points, and it would need to arrive in time to count this season.
For context, the biggest deduction in Premier League history is still Everton's 10 points in 2024, later cut to six on appeal. This case is far bigger, so that's no ceiling. But 50 points would be in a different universe.
Then there's the timing. City's appeal points to a decision around late January, and no date has been set for the sanctions hearing. Current reporting doesn't expect a deduction before spring.
The relegation contract also settles on relegation for the 2026-27 season, so a deduction pushed into next season wouldn't pay Yes holders.
| City relegated | 90% or more |
| What it needs | Roughly 50 points, this season |
| City relegated | 1% to 3% |
| Why | Too many points banked |
| City relegated | Under 1% |
| Why | Nothing lands in time |
| Club | Pts | xPTS | xG | xGA | xGD | Buy Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town | 10 | 7.12 | 10.61 | 18.85 | -8.24 | 36¢ |
| Aston Villa | 11 | 8.30 | 9.56 | 15.34 | -5.78 | 5.6¢ |
| Newcastle United | 11 | 7.45 | 9.98 | 15.12 | -5.14 | 11.8¢ |
| Crystal Palace | 7 | 8.19 | 12.49 | 17.33 | -4.84 | 28¢ |
| Hull City | 10 | 7.73 | 9.33 | 13.96 | -4.63 | 54¢ |
| Coventry City | 6 | 8.10 | 8.19 | 12.35 | -4.16 | 58¢ |
| Sunderland | 5 | 9.74 | 12.06 | 15.94 | -3.88 | 27¢ |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 9 | 10.70 | 9.81 | 11.66 | -1.85 | 8¢ |
| Fulham | 8 | 11.10 | 12.59 | 12.22 | +0.37 | 19¢ |
| Nottingham Forest | 6 | 15.18 | 15.75 | 9.03 | +6.72 | 17¢ |
| Bournemouth | 9 | 14.86 | 16.72 | 9.31 | +7.41 | 8¢ |
The table flatters some bottom-half sides and punishes others. Bournemouth have just nine points, but their +7.41 expected goal difference is second only to City’s, and Forest are an even starker case. Neither should be in this fight by May.
Newcastle are the worry going the other way. They sit mid-table on 11 points, but their -5.14 expected goal difference and 7.45 xPTS, the second-lowest in the league, suggest they’ve picked up more than they’ve earned.
The squad is good enough to fix it, but at 11.8¢ they’re the club under the radar I’d keep a close eye on.
The City case is still the biggest single catalyst. The end of the 12-week appeal window around late December, the expected appeal decision in late January and the eventual sanctions hearing date will each reprice City's contract, and every other club's with it.
A City relegation takes one of the three spots, so the rest of the bottom half has a stake in that hearing too.
On the pitch, watch whether Forest's finishing turns. It's the most likely route to a sharp drop in their relegation price. Ipswich's defensive numbers are the other thing to track: if they keep conceding chances at this rate, the points will dry up.
The January transfer window matters most for the promoted sides, who are the shortest of Premier League depth.
I'll revisit these prices when the sanctions timeline firms up or the gap between results and performance starts to close.
