Croatia vs England Nations League Preview & Prediction: Is the Home Upset Underpriced?
Updated October 2, 2026
Updated October 2, 2026
Croatia host England in Rijeka on Saturday looking to respond to a 4-1 defeat in Spain. Slaven Bilić’s side created just 0.47 xG in Seville, but their opening 2-1 win away to Czechia brought 1.84 xG and 16 shots. England also have three points after losing 3-2 to Spain and beating Czechia 2-0, although their win in Prague came after the hosts went down to ten men in the 23rd minute.
We’re trading Croatia to win at 23¢. England are the stronger side on paper, but their defensive performance against Spain and the limited evidence from their 11-versus-10 victory make a Croatia upset more plausible than this price implies. This is a speculative position, not a claim that Croatia are the likelier winners.
How Croatia can cause an upset
“Croatia have a route to the upset, but and it all starts in midfield. If Modrić and Kovačić start, the home side have a way to control the game. England have struggled against sustained possession recently, and if they are chasing shadows in midfield, this opens up the propsect of an upset. We still expect England to win more often, but Croatia’s midfield and Perišić’s delivery make a small play at 23¢ defensible.”
The market is not obviously mispriced
England are listed at 54¢ to win and Croatia at 23¢. Other match odds broadly agree with Croatia's 23% market probability. Our disagreement comes from how much weight to place on a likely Modrić start and on England's 11-versus-10 win, not from an isolated bargain price.
The safer handicap is expensive
Croatia +1.5 costs 72¢. It covers a draw and a one-goal England win, but our case is for a specific upset at 23¢ rather than paying for all three outcomes.
The margin is thin
Our 25–27% range leaves two to four percentage points at 23¢, before fees and model error. A one-point move or an unexpected midfield selection can erase the practical value. Wait for the lineups and do not chase a higher price.
Recommended Position
Croatia to win
Market Price
23¢
Model Probability:
27%
Market Probability
23%
Model Edge:
4%
Entry Threshold:
24¢
Predicted Score:
Croatia 2-1 England
Metric | Croatia | England |
|---|---|---|
Record | 1–0–1 | 1–0–1 |
Goals for / against | 3 / 5 | 4 / 3 |
xG | 2.31 | 3.22 |
xGA | 2.73 | 3.44 |
xG differential | −0.42 | −0.22 |
xG/90 | 1.16 | 1.61 |
xGA/90 | 1.37 | 1.72 |
Shots for / against | 21 / 21 | 35 / 21 |
Touches in opposition box | 39 | 76 |
The teams meet at Stadion HNK Rijeka on Saturday. The match is subject to a spectator sanction, although children and a small England allocation are permitted. That limits Croatia's usual crowd advantage and is one reason to keep the upset projection conservative.
Croatia's 2-1 win in Prague was backed by the better chance profile. They outshot Czechia 16-5, generated 1.84 xG to 0.92 and had 27 touches in the opposition box to eight. Croatia could sustain attacks and create openings with both their midfield passing and wide service.
England's 2-0 win at the same venue came after Pavel Šulc's 23rd-minute dismissal. England finished with 22 shots and 66% possession, yet their 1.48 xG against ten men is a weaker signal of attacking superiority than the score alone suggests. Anthony Gordon and Harry Kane remain significant threats, and England can still win this match without dominating it.
Modrić and Mateo Kovačić have the experience to play through pressure, but England's midfield can disrupt them if Elliot Anderson can win second-ball exchanges.
Croatia's route is to avoid sustained turnovers in central areas, then find Perišić or runners arriving around the box. England conceded 3.12 xG in the 3-2 defeat to Spain, so their defensive structure has already shown it can be stretched.
England beat Croatia 4-2 at the World Cup in June and have more pace in their front line than the hosts. A Croatia win requires a much stronger attacking performance than they produced in Seville (0.47 xG vs Spain), while keeping Kane and Gordon from turning transitions into clear chances.
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England remain more likely to win. The trade asks whether Croatia can win more than 23 times in 100 comparable games. We put that figure at 27% if Modrić starts, because Croatia's best recent attacking evidence came with their first-choice midfield against 11 players, while England's Prague control was aided by the early dismissal.
That is a judgment from two matches with different opponents and game states, not a precise model output. The 2-1 score call describes a plausible upset: Croatia progress through midfield, Perišić creates a chance from wide, and England still find a goal through their stronger front line.
There is a serious countercase. England have already beaten Croatia 4-2 this summer, Croatia's defense was opened up repeatedly by Spain, and the spectator restriction reduces the usual home advantage. Conventional match odds also sit close to 23%, so this is a narrow tactical disagreement with the market.
Take Croatia only at 23¢ or less after a Modrić start is confirmed; otherwise pass.
