Portugal vs Norway Nations League Preview & Prediction: Can Norway Trouble the Hosts Again?
Updated October 2, 2026
Updated October 2, 2026
Portugal host Norway in Porto on Sunday in a match dominated by discourse around Cristiano Ronaldo's withdrawal from the Portugal squad.
The Ronaldo circus has deflected eyes away from a Portugal side thriving without him, with a perfect record through three Nations League fixtures. However, we’re trading Portugal No at 40¢ on Kalshi, which pays on a Norway win or draw.
Portugal's form under Jesus cannot be ignored, but Norway’s chance creation in Oslo in the reverse fixtures gives them a path to taking points.
Norway xG production shows route to points
“Norway won the xG battle 2.72 to 1.03 in Oslo. We price a Norway win or draw at 45%, five points above the quoted price. Portugal’s home advantage and Norway’s defensive absences keep this a small position. Buy at 42¢ or less if Haaland and Martin Ødegaard start, otherwise pivot to Portugal.”
Portugal are still favorites
Portugal Yes is 61¢ and No is 40¢. Our 55% home-win projection gives Norway and the draw a combined 45% chance. Portugal looked vibrant without their all time leading goalscorer in Copenhagen, but 61¢ is too high a price to pay.
Norway's metrics prove they can win
Portugal took the points despite losing the xG battle 2.72 to 1.03. Nyland’s error gifted Ramos the winner; a repeat of Norway’s chance creation could produce a different result.
The edge can disappear
Heggem is suspended and Julian Ryerson is a fitness doubt. At 42¢ the projected edge falls to three points before fees; above that, pass.
Recommended Position
Portugal No
Market Price
40¢
Model Probability:
45%
Market Probability
40%
Model Edge:
5%
Entry Threshold:
42¢
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Portugal lead Group A4 with nine points, while Norway have three. The figures below incorporate data from the Nations League so far this season.
Metric | Portugal | Norway |
|---|---|---|
Record | 3–0–0 | 1–0–2 |
Goals for / against | 7 / 3 | 5 / 6 |
xG | 5.21 | 5.43 |
xGA | 4.33 | 3.17 |
xG differential | +0.88 | +2.26 |
xG/90 | 1.74 | 1.81 |
xGA/90 | 1.44 | 1.06 |
Shots for / against | 54 / 39 | 47 / 37 |
Touches in opposition box | 82 | 92 |
Haaland accounted for 1.69 of Norway’s 2.72 xG in Oslo. Ødegaard and the wide runners helped Norway take 22 shots and reach Portugal’s box 35 times. Portugal needed Nyland’s error and five Diogo Costa saves to hold on. Repeating that volume away from home will be harder.
In Cardiff, Oscar Bobb scored before Ryerson left injured in the 17th minute and Heggem was sent off in the 46th. Norway still edged Wales on xG, 1.30 to 1.05. Their depleted back line is the greater concern for Sunday.
Portugal were far better without Ronaldo in Copenhagen. Ramos started in Ronaldo’s absence, scored and assisted João Cancelo, while Bruno Fernandes supplied two assists. Portugal created 2.25 xG to Denmark’s 0.76.
Vitinha and Fernandes can control midfield, while Leão and Neto can target Norway’s changed back line. Our estimate allows for that threat: a matchup scenario of 2.05 expected goals for Portugal and 1.30 for Norway makes the hosts a 55% favorite. Norway need to retain enough attacking threat to score or hold a draw.
Portugal may be favored in Porto, but Norway have shown they can create chances against this defense. Solbakken’s side registered 2.72 xG and 22 shots when these teams met in Oslo, only to lose after a goalkeeping error.
Portugal’s four goals in Denmark show why the hosts remain likelier winners, especially without Ronaldo. We still expect Portugal to win more often than not, but a Norway win or draw is worth backing at 41¢ if Haaland and Ødegaard start.
