Greece vs Germany Nations League Preview & Prediction: Klopp Seeks Revenge in Thessaloniki
Updated October 2, 2026
Updated October 2, 2026
Germany come to Thessaloniki on Sunday with revege on their minds. Greece stunned Die Mannschaft by winning 1-0 in Augsburg, but Germany created 1.27 xG to Greece’s 0.72 in the first meeting and followed it with a dominant 2-0 win over Serbia in which Florian Wirtz dazzled.
We’re trading Under 2.5 goals at 45¢ on Kalshi. Greece have kept both Germany and the Netherlands close on chances, while Germany’s 3.81 xG against Serbia is a sharp contrast with their first two games. Christos Tzolis’s injury also reduces Greece’s threat on the break. A controlled rematch looks more likely than a goal rush, even if Germany are favorites to win.
Greece have the organisation to restrict Germany again
“Greece restricted Germany to 1.27 xG in Augsburg and the Netherlands to 1.04, while Tzolis’s absence limits their own threat on the break. We give the match a 52% chance of finishing with two goals or fewer, despite a much improved attacking performance from Germany against Serbia last time out. ”
Thursday’s 2-2 was way above expected production
Greece scored twice from 0.92 xG and the Netherlands twice from 1.04. The match went over despite producing just 1.96 combined xG.
Serbia inflated Germany’s attacking average
Their 3.81 xG against Serbia accounts for 58% of their three-game total. Germany created 1.45 against the Netherlands and 1.27 against Greece. Wirtz starting raises the ceiling, but Thursday’s 32 shots are a demanding baseline.
A 2-1 scoreline is the danger
- A 1-0, 1-1 or 2-0 finish pays. If Germany score early, Greece may have to push forward and give Wirtz more space to create a third goal.
Recommended Position
Under 2.5 Goals
Market Price
44¢
Model Probability:
51%
Market Probability
51%
Model Edge:
7%
Entry Threshold:
42¢
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Greece lead Group A2 with seven points; Germany have four. The figures cover all three Nations League games this season, with xG and shot counts from the same provider.
Metric | Greece | Germany |
|---|---|---|
Record | 2–1–0 | 1–1–1 |
Goals for / against | 5 / 3 | 3 / 2 |
xG | 4.15 | 6.53 |
xGA | 3.73 | 3.91 |
xG differential | +0.42 | +2.62 |
xG/90 | 1.38 | 2.18 |
xGA/90 | 1.24 | 1.30 |
Shots for / against | 42 / 44 | 58 / 31 |
Touches in opposition box | 68 | 98 |
Both attacks had their biggest xG performance against Serbia: 2.51 for Greece and 3.81 for Germany. Greece generated 1.64 xG combined against Germany and the Netherlands. That is a more useful guide to their likely scoring threat here, though two games remain a small sample.
In Augsburg, Germany held 76% possession and reached the Greek box 29 times, but managed just 1.27 xG from 16 shots, demonstrating inefficiency when faced with a low block, something Greece manager Ivan Jovanovic is likely to deploy again in Thessaloniki.
Greece led the Netherlands 2-0 before conceding an 89th-minute equalizer. They had 29% possession and eight shots, generating 0.92 xG while allowing 1.04. Giorgos Masouras replaced the injured Tzolis early and offers a wide outlet; Konstantinos Karetsas and Vangelis Pavlidis remain threats. Without Tzolis, Greece have less pace to turn deep recoveries into clear chances, futher limiting the case for over 2.5 goals.
Klopp’s first win came with Florian Wirtz starting alongside Nick Woltemade. Wirtz assisted Tom Bischof and scored against Serbia, while Aleksandar Pavlović and Bischof helped Germany maintain 74% possession. Their 32 shots and 3.81 xG are a serious threat to the under. Serbia managed one shot in reply, leaving Germany free to sustain attacks.
Wirtz did not enter the first Greece meeting until the 65th minute. A full game from him threatens the space between Greece’s midfield and defense, especially if Germany dictate possession. Yet Greece’s 4-4-2 held Germany to 1.27 xG and the Netherlands to 1.04 despite 19 Dutch shots. Germany can be the likelier winner without the match producing three goals.
Germany should control midfield, but Greece have limited the quality of chances against both Germany and the Netherlands. Tzolis’s absence may also reduce what Greece create on the break. Wirtz starting is the clearest threat to the under, especially if an early German goal forces Greece forward. We back Under 2.5 at 44¢, with 1-1 our score call.
