Falcons vs Saints Player Prop Predictions: Best Monday Night Football Props
Updated October 2, 2026
*Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket and may change as the market fluctuates.
Updated October 2, 2026
*Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket and may change as the market fluctuates.
The Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints renew their NFC South rivalry on Monday night, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
Both teams enter at 1-2, but in much different moods. Atlanta avoided an 0-3 start with an underdog win over Green Bay last Thursday night, while New Orleans dropped back below .500 after losing at home to the Raiders.
This should be a fun matchup for Monday Night Football, but rather than looking at a side or total, I think the best value is in the player prop markets.
Below, I break down my three favorite Falcons vs Saints player prop predictions for Monday night, targeting Devaughn Vele, Bijan Robinson and Drake London and breaking down where our ATS Quantitative Model sees an edge at the current market prices.
Vele Has a Consistent Role in the Saints' Passing Game
Devaughn Vele has seen 22 targets through three games, averaging 7.3 per game with roughly an 18% target share and 25% of New Orleans' air yards. That steady volume has helped him average 57.3 receiving yards per game so far.
Atlanta Is Missing Its No. 1 Cornerback
Falcons No. 1 cornerback A.J. Terrell remains on injured reserve with a groin injury, leaving Atlanta without its best player in coverage. The Falcons have allowed some big receiver performances without Terrell, including 101 yards to Tetairoa McMillan, 96 to Christian Watson, 100 to Matthew Golden and 66 to Jalen Coker over the last two weeks.
Atlanta's Coverage Scheme Fits Vele
The Falcons have played single-high coverage on 64.7% of their snaps, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. Vele has averaged 1.91 yards per route run against single-high coverage, with an 18% target rate against those looks. That lines up well for a receiver who has already finished with 69, 64 and 39 yards through three games.
Recommended Prediction:
Vele 40+ Rec Yards
Current Market Price:
59¢
Model Win Probability:
63.9%
Market-Implied Probability:
59.0%
Model Edge:
+4.9%
Buy Up To:
63¢
Model Trade Confidence:
73/100
We're Selling High After a Career Game
Robinson is coming off 194 rushing yards on 29 carries against Green Bay, but he finished with just 83 and 72 yards in Atlanta's first two games. His 116.3 rushing yards per game is heavily inflated by that one performance, making 90 a good number to sell high on.
The Saints Have Historically Kept Bijan Below This Number
Robinson has faced New Orleans six times in his career and has been held below 90 rushing yards in four of those six games, finishing with 70, 33, 28 and 28 yards. He's averaging just 61 rushing yards per game across those six meetings.
Bijan's Receiving Role Can Cut Into His Rushing Volume
Robinson already has 13 catches for 118 receiving yards through three games, including an eight-catch, 90-yard performance against Pittsburgh. Atlanta has plenty of ways to get him involved without giving him 25-plus carries, which gives us another path to the Under on a relatively high 90-yard rushing number.
Recommended Prediction:
Robinson U90 Rush Yds
Current Market Price:
57¢
Model Under Probability:
63.1%
Market-Implied Probability:
57.0%
Model Edge:
+6.1%
Buy Up To:
62¢
Model Trade Confidence:
81/100
London Has Been Penix's Go-To Target Near the End Zone
In the 13 games where Michael Penix Jr. has played at least 20 snaps, London has drawn 17 red-zone targets and 13 end-zone targets, turning that usage into eight touchdowns. He's also commanded a 32.9% target share and 40.9% first-read share in those games, so Penix has consistently looked London's way when he's on the field.
London Is Due for Some Touchdown Regression
London has 15 catches for 274 yards through three games without a touchdown, despite owning a 26% target share and 36.9% of Atlanta's air yards. He scored 16 touchdowns across 29 games over the previous two seasons, so his early production and involvement haven't matched the zero in the touchdown column.
New Orleans Is Banged Up Defensively
The Saints had four linebackers miss Thursday's practice, while starting safety Julian Blackmon was limited with a calf injury. That's worth watching heading into Monday night, especially with London's history of being one of Penix's favorite options around the end zone.
Recommended Prediction:
London Anytime TD
Current Market Price:
42¢
Model TD Probability:
47.5%
Market-Implied Probability:
42.0%
Model Edge:
+5.5%
Buy Up To:
46¢
Model Trade Confidence:
79/100
On Polymarket, New Orleans is currently priced as a 56% favorite to win this NFC South matchup, with the Saints trading at 56¢. That potential game script fits our Bijan Robinson under, as Atlanta could be forced away from the run if it spends much of the second half playing from behind.
On the other hand, Vele gives us some exposure if the game develops differently. New Orleans trailed at halftime against Las Vegas last week before scoring 14 unanswered points in the third quarter, and another slow start could force the Saints to lean on the passing game early. That would give Vele more opportunities to get up and over 40 receiving yards.
The total is set at 47.5, with the Over trading at 52.5¢. A competitive game with around 50 points would also give both passing attacks plenty of opportunities, which fits our Vele receiving yards and London touchdown props.
Our Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints prediction points in a similar direction overall. The ATS Quantitative Model gives New Orleans a 63% chance to win and projects a 27-23 Saints victory, putting the projected total at 50 points and slightly above the current market.
For more NFL predictions for Week 4 and beyond, check out our latest game previews, analysis and player props throughout the season.
