Sweden vs Latvia Olympic Men's Hockey Qualification Playoff Prediction - 2/17/2026
Updated February 16, 2026
Updated February 16, 2026
The elimination round of the men’s hockey tournament at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milano-Cortina will begin on Tuesday as Sweden faces Latvia in one of four games on the day. Sweden enters this matchup as a heavy favorite after finishing seventh in the preliminary round, while Latvia is seeded tenth, and aims to continue its surprising campaign and move one step closer to an Olympic quarterfinal berth. Before this contest begins in Italy, you will find my Sweden vs Latvia prediction below.
Pick: Over 6.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3/5
Sweden enters this elimination game with two wins and one loss in this tournament so far. In the preliminary phase, they scored five goals against both Italy and Slovakia, but they also suffered a 4‑1 loss to Finland. Despite that loss, the Swedish lineup has shown scoring ability across multiple lines, with forwards like Elias Pettersson and Lucas Raymond contributing multi‑point efforts in recent contests. Their round‑robin performance was enough to secure the seventh seed, sending them into a knockout duel with Latvia rather than earning a bye.
Latvia’s road has been more tumultuous. A 5‑1 loss to the United States opened their tournament with a lopsided defeat, but the team rebounded with a 4‑3 win over Germany, their first Olympic win since 2014. That victory instilled belief, but a 4‑2 loss to Denmark in their last group game highlighted Latvia’s inconsistencies entering this challenge.
Goaltending will be a storyline to watch in this game. Sweden has options between the pipes and will lean on the NHL experience of all three goalies to steady the ship in this elimination game. Latvia’s goaltending situation is less straightforward. While Elvis Merzļikins and Artūrs Šilovs are both on the roster and bring NHL pedigree, Latvia has alternated goalies during the tournament. Silovs especially drew praise for his strong play against Germany, making 26 saves in that upset win. Stability in net will be crucial for Latvia if they hope to limit Sweden’s attack.
Sweden’s scoring comes from multiple contributors. Elias Pettersson has registered more than one goal in recent outings for the Tre Kronor, while Lucas Raymond continues to create offense at both even strength and on the power play. Veterans like Filip Forsberg and Mika Zibanejad bring international experience and additional scoring that can elevate Sweden’s attack.
For Latvia, the roster features both NHL and AHL talent, including forwards Zemgus Girgensons and Dans Ločmelis. Ločmelis scored a brace in the win over Germany, showcasing his scoring instincts. Defenseman Uvis Balinskis takes on heavy minutes and tries to transition play up ice, while Latvia’s ability to counter‑attack will hinge on discipline and capitalizing on what chances they do get.
Score Projection: Sweden 6 – Latvia 1 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Sweden 88%, Latvia 12% ATS PRO
This elimination round contest at the 2026 Winter Olympics shapes up as a mismatch on paper, with Sweden’s NHL‑loaded roster and recent offensive performances suggesting they can advance comfortably. Latvia’s recent win over Germany demonstrates its potential to compete, but sustaining that level against a deeper Swedish squad will be difficult.
I think that the smartest play in the betting markets for this game will be to take the over, as Sweden should do plenty of scoring, but Latvia has shown it can get pucks on net against competition like the USA previously in the tournament.
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