Jay Sanin on December 15, 2024
Tony Pollard projections and prop bets for Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans on Dec 15, 2024
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
The leading projections forecast the Titans to be the 10th-most run-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.1% run rate.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) usually prompt decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased run volume.
The leading projections forecast Tony Pollard to accumulate 16.6 rush attempts this week, on balance, placing him in the 85th percentile when it comes to RBs.
With an outstanding record of 66.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (85th percentile), Tony Pollard rates among the top running backs in football this year.
Opposing offenses have run for the 8th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (134 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.
This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Titans, who are -5-point underdogs.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tennessee Titans are expected by the predictive model to run only 63.6 total plays in this game: the 6th-lowest number on the slate this week.
As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Cincinnati's group of LBs has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the NFL.
Tony Pollard is projected to have 68.3 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Titans, who are -5-point underdogs.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Bengals defense this year: 9th-most in football.
The leading projections forecast Tony Pollard to accrue 3.1 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
With a sizeable 13.9% Target Share (96th percentile) this year, Tony Pollard has been as one of the RB receiving threats with the most usage in the league.
Tony Pollard has totaled a monstrous 1.0 air yards per game this year: 79th percentile among RBs. (This might not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 58.9% pass rate.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tennessee Titans are expected by the predictive model to run only 63.6 total plays in this game: the 6th-lowest number on the slate this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) usually prompt decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased run volume.
The Titans offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Tony Pollard's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 83.5% to 75.9%.
Tony Pollard is projected to have 14.2 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
