Jay Sanin on January 9, 2025
T.J. Hockenson projections and prop bets for Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams on Jan 13, 2025
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 60.9% of their plays: the 2nd-highest rate among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see 132.8 plays on offense run: the most among all games this week.
Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically prompt increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and reduced ground volume.
In this week's game, T.J. Hockenson is predicted by the model to find himself in the 100th percentile among tight ends with 6.7 targets.
The Rams pass defense has not been good when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.53 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-most in the NFL.
After averaging 63.0 air yards per game last year, T.J. Hockenson has produced significantly fewer this year, now averaging 52.0 per game.
T.J. Hockenson's 39.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 51.5.
T.J. Hockenson's 44.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season indicates a substantial decrease in his pass-catching skills over last season's 63.0 mark.
T.J. Hockenson's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 75.2% to 68.8%.
The Rams pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (72.6%) versus tight ends this year (72.6%).
T.J. Hockenson is projected to have 48.1 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 60.9% of their plays: the 2nd-highest rate among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see 132.8 plays on offense run: the most among all games this week.
Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically prompt increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and reduced ground volume.
In this week's game, T.J. Hockenson is predicted by the model to find himself in the 100th percentile among tight ends with 6.7 targets.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's unit has been atrocious this year, projecting as the 8th-worst in football.
T.J. Hockenson's 39.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 51.5.
T.J. Hockenson's 4.1 adjusted catches per game this season marks a noteable decline in his receiving prowess over last season's 6.2 rate.
T.J. Hockenson's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 75.2% to 68.8%.
The Rams pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (72.6%) versus tight ends this year (72.6%).
T.J. Hockenson is projected to have 4.6 Receptions in this weeks game.
