Jay Sanin on January 9, 2025
Mike Evans projections and prop bets for Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Jan 12, 2025
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 9th-most pass-focused team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.0% pass rate.
The Buccaneers have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 58.9 plays per game.
The leading projections forecast Mike Evans to accrue 9.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
Mike Evans's 66.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) grades out among the league leaders: 94th percentile for WRs.
With an excellent 5.2 adjusted catches per game (87th percentile) this year, Mike Evans rates as one of the leading pass-catching WRs in the NFL.
The Buccaneers are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a running game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are predicted by the predictive model to run only 63.6 offensive plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.9 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
The Commanders pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (63.4%) vs. wideouts this year (63.4%).
The Washington Commanders linebackers rank as the 3rd-best group of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.
Mike Evans is projected to have 5.4 Receptions in this weeks game.
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 9th-most pass-focused team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.0% pass rate.
The Buccaneers have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 58.9 plays per game.
The leading projections forecast Mike Evans to accrue 9.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
Mike Evans's 66.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) grades out among the league leaders: 94th percentile for WRs.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Buccaneers grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year.
The Buccaneers are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a running game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are predicted by the predictive model to run only 63.6 offensive plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.9 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
After averaging 118.0 air yards per game last year, Mike Evans has posted significant losses this year, currently sitting at 95.0 per game.
Mike Evans's skills in picking up extra yardage have tailed off this year, totaling just 3.05 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.08 rate last year.
Mike Evans is projected to have 75.4 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
