Jay Sanin on November 27, 2024
Keenan Allen projections and prop bets for Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions on Nov 28, 2024
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Bears being a big -10.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
The predictive model expects the Bears to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The Bears have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 61.3 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Detroit Lions defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by the model to call only 63.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-lowest number among all teams this week.
Keenan Allen has been a much smaller part of his offense's air attack this season (25.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (31.0%).
After averaging 106.0 air yards per game last year, Keenan Allen has produced significantly less this year, now boasting 66.0 per game.
Keenan Allen has accrued substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (41.0) this year than he did last year (98.0).
Keenan Allen's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 73.1% to 58.1%.
Keenan Allen is projected to have 60.7 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Bears being a big -10.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
The predictive model expects the Bears to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The Bears have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 61.3 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Detroit Lions defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by the model to call only 63.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-lowest number among all teams this week.
Keenan Allen has been a much smaller part of his offense's air attack this season (25.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (31.0%).
Keenan Allen's receiving talent has diminished this season, compiling just 4.4 adjusted catches compared to 8.2 last season.
Keenan Allen's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 73.1% to 58.1%.
This year, the strong Detroit Lions defense has allowed a paltry 62.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 8th-best rate in football.
Keenan Allen is projected to have 5.3 Receptions in this weeks game.
