Jay Sanin on January 9, 2025
J.K. Dobbins projections and prop bets for Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans on Jan 11, 2025
Rushing Yards Prop Bet Odds:
In this week's game, J.K. Dobbins is projected by the projections to secure a spot in the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.7 carries.
J.K. Dobbins has been given 53.5% of his team's carries this year, putting him in the 86th percentile when it comes to RBs.
With a remarkable total of 70.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (92nd percentile), J.K. Dobbins places among the best RBs in football this year.
With an outstanding rate of 4.70 adjusted yards per carry (78th percentile), J.K. Dobbins ranks among the top pure rushers in football this year.
With a 37.8% rate of rushing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-least run-heavy team in the NFL has been the Chargers.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see just 127.9 plays on offense called: the fewest on the slate this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 55.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
This year, the porous Houston Texans run defense has been gouged for a staggering 4.20 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposing run game: the 19th-biggest rate in football.
J.K. Dobbins is projected to have 61.8 Rushing Yards in this weeks game.
Carries Prop Bet Odds:
In this week's game, J.K. Dobbins is projected by the projections to secure a spot in the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.7 carries.
J.K. Dobbins has been given 53.5% of his team's carries this year, putting him in the 86th percentile when it comes to RBs.
With a 37.8% rate of rushing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-least run-heavy team in the NFL has been the Chargers.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see just 127.9 plays on offense called: the fewest on the slate this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 55.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Houston's group of DEs has been one of the most skilled this year, profiling as the 5th-best in the league.
J.K. Dobbins is projected to have 14.9 Carries in this weeks game.
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
With a 62.2% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the league has been the Chargers.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In this contest, J.K. Dobbins is expected by the projection model to slot into the 79th percentile among RBs with 3.5 targets.
With a sizeable 10.1% Target Rate (81st percentile) this year, J.K. Dobbins rates among the pass-game running backs with the highest volume in the NFL.
J.K. Dobbins grades out as one of the top pass-catching running backs this year, averaging a remarkable 2.5 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 77th percentile.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see just 127.9 plays on offense called: the fewest on the slate this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 55.5 plays per game.
This year, the fierce Houston Texans defense has given up a paltry 77.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 4th-smallest rate in the league.
The Texans defensive ends grade out as the 7th-best collection of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to rushing the passer.
J.K. Dobbins is projected to have 2.6 Receptions in this weeks game.
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
With a 62.2% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the league has been the Chargers.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In this contest, J.K. Dobbins is expected by the projection model to slot into the 79th percentile among RBs with 3.5 targets.
With a sizeable 10.1% Target Rate (81st percentile) this year, J.K. Dobbins rates among the pass-game running backs with the highest volume in the NFL.
J.K. Dobbins comes in as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL among running backs, hauling in a terrific 89.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 76th percentile.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see just 127.9 plays on offense called: the fewest on the slate this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 55.5 plays per game.
As it relates to air yards, J.K. Dobbins ranks in the lowly 11th percentile among running backs this year, with just -3.0 per game.
With a weak 4.3 adjusted yards per target (8th percentile) this year, J.K. Dobbins stands among the bottom running backs in the pass game in the NFL.
This year, the fierce Houston Texans defense has given up a paltry 77.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 4th-smallest rate in the league.
J.K. Dobbins is projected to have 15.9 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
