Jay Sanin on December 19, 2024
DeAndre Hopkins projections and prop bets for Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs on Dec 21, 2024
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chiefs to pass on 60.3% of their plays: the 9th-highest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs to call the 7th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.4 plays per game.
The projections expect DeAndre Hopkins to total 6.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 75th percentile among wide receivers.
DeAndre Hopkins's 70.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this year shows a material improvement in his pass-catching talent over last year's 56.6% rate.
This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 3.5 points.
DeAndre Hopkins's 40.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 73.3.
This year, the imposing Houston Texans defense has yielded a paltry 58.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 2nd-best rate in the league.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Houston's CB corps has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the NFL.
DeAndre Hopkins is projected to have 3.5 Receptions in this weeks game.
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chiefs to pass on 60.3% of their plays: the 9th-highest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs to call the 7th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.4 plays per game.
The projections expect DeAndre Hopkins to total 6.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 75th percentile among wide receivers.
The Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 3.5 points.
DeAndre Hopkins has put up far fewer air yards this year (61.0 per game) than he did last year (119.0 per game).
DeAndre Hopkins's 40.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 73.3.
DeAndre Hopkins has accrued many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (45.0) this season than he did last season (61.0).
This year, the imposing Houston Texans defense has yielded a paltry 58.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 2nd-best rate in the league.
DeAndre Hopkins is projected to have 47 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
