Jay Sanin on December 15, 2024
Chigoziem Okonkwo projections and prop bets for Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans on Dec 15, 2024
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Titans, who are -5-point underdogs.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Bengals defense this year: 9th-most in football.
The model projects Chigoziem Okonkwo to total 3.8 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has yielded the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.2%) vs. TEs this year (78.2%).
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Cincinnati's group of safeties has been terrible this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in the league.
The projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 58.9% pass rate.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tennessee Titans are expected by the predictive model to run only 63.6 total plays in this game: the 6th-lowest number on the slate this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) usually prompt decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased run volume.
Chigoziem Okonkwo's 22.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 33.0.
Chigoziem Okonkwo has been one of the most unreliable receivers in the league among tight ends, hauling in a measly 71.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 18th percentile.
Chigoziem Okonkwo is projected to have 2.5 Receptions in this weeks game.
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Titans, who are -5-point underdogs.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Bengals defense this year: 9th-most in football.
The model projects Chigoziem Okonkwo to total 3.8 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has yielded the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.2%) vs. TEs this year (78.2%).
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Cincinnati's group of safeties has been terrible this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in the league.
The projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 58.9% pass rate.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tennessee Titans are expected by the predictive model to run only 63.6 total plays in this game: the 6th-lowest number on the slate this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) usually prompt decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased run volume.
After totaling 33.0 air yards per game last year, Chigoziem Okonkwo has produced significantly fewer this year, now averaging 18.0 per game.
Chigoziem Okonkwo's 19.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year shows a meaningful drop-off in his receiving talent over last year's 30.0 rate.
Chigoziem Okonkwo is projected to have 23.7 Receiving Yards in this weeks game.
