CFL
Montreal enters at 8-1 with a +74 point differential and a perfect 5-0 home mark. The Alouettes have allowed just 247 points across nine games, and their 321 points scored show a balanced attack that can win with pace or control. Their 5-2-0 ATS record and 6-1-0 Over-Under record also show that the market has often underestimated their scoring, but their defensive profile still keeps opponents from hanging around for long. Ottawa has gone the other way, sitting at 0-9 with a -115 point differential and no wins on either home or road. The Redblacks have scored only 207 points and allowed 322, which means their games have often turned into catch-up mode early. With a 0-4 road record, Ottawa has had trouble both protecting its defense and sustaining enough offense to keep the spread manageable. Montreal’s edge in scoring margin, home record, and division form is clear, and Ottawa’s lack of a win this season makes a competitive upset difficult to justify.
Montreal should control this game from the start and win comfortably, but the stronger betting angle is the Under 62.5 rather than laying a steep number with the favorite. The Alouettes have been far better at home, Ottawa has been ineffective on the road, and the season-long scoring profiles point to a game that lands below the current total. My projected final score is Montreal Alouettes 34, Ottawa Redblacks 22.
