2026 BMW Championship Prediction & Tournament Preview
Updated August 17, 2026
Updated August 17, 2026
The PGA Tour’s 2026 FedExCup Playoffs move to St. Louis this week for the BMW Championship, where 50 players will compete at Bellerive Country Club from August 20-23. Only the top 30 in the FedExCup standings after this event will advance to the season-ending TOUR Championship. Scottie Scheffler enters as the defending champion and the clear betting favorite after putting together one of the most dominant performances of his season last week, while Rory McIlroy arrives looking to repair a game that produced an 8-over finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Scheffler is the pick, and the +300 available through DraftKings Sportsbook is still playable. DraftKings opened Scheffler at +300, with Rory McIlroy at +1375 and Sam Burns at +1475, creating a substantial gap between the world No. 1 and everyone else.
The 31% projection is aggressive but supported by the circumstances. Scheffler just won the FedEx St. Jude Championship by 8 strokes at 17 under par, tying the course record with a 61 during the tournament. The victory was his 21st PGA Tour title and came after a season in which he had already accumulated 12 top-5 finishes and 5 runner-up results.
There is also a useful course-fit angle. Bellerive is being stretched to 7,448 yards and will play as a par 70. The venue has historically rewarded strong drivers and high-level tee-to-green players. Scheffler's victory at last year's BMW Championship came with gains of 5.3 strokes off the tee, 5.3 on approach and 15.0 from tee to green overall. That is exactly the type of data that should translate to Bellerive.
These are the latest DraftKings prices published on August 17 and remain the best available snapshot of the outright market heading into tournament week for those making golf betting picks.
Scheffler's price is short, but his recent performance gives him a much stronger case than the typical favorite at +300. Burns is particularly interesting behind him after finishing T3 at the St. Jude following a T2 at The Open, while Tommy Fleetwood has also put together a strong run of results. Si Woo Kim deserves attention after finishing runner-up at TPC Southwind, and Wyndham Clark is a compelling longer-price option at +3300 given his length and T5 finish last week.
Among the bigger prices, Min Woo Lee at +5300, Rickie Fowler at +5600, Adam Scott at +5800 and Sungjae Im at +6100 deserve consideration. Im is especially interesting after finishing T5 at the St. Jude and jumping from 53rd to 40th in the FedExCup standings.
This is a very different proposition from the opening playoff event. The St. Jude Championship featured 70 eligible players, while the BMW field has been reduced to 50. There is also no cut, meaning every golfer is guaranteed 4 rounds. That removes one of the biggest sources of variance from outright betting and places greater emphasis on identifying players capable of producing 4 strong rounds rather than simply surviving the first 2.
The FedExCup implications add another layer. Scheffler starts from No. 1, while Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Young, Wyndham Clark, Chris Gotterup and Collin Morikawa occupy the next 5 positions. Players lower down the standings have a much greater need for a high finish because only the top 30 after the BMW Championship reach East Lake.
Recent form is particularly useful here. 13 of the past 14 BMW Championship winners had recorded at least one top-12 finish in their previous 4 starts. And only 3 of the previous 11 winners finished outside the top 12 at the preceding FedExCup playoff event. That trend strongly favors Scheffler, Burns, Si Woo Kim, Clark, Noren and Im, all of whom arrive off strong performances in Memphis.
Scheffler checks virtually every box. He has the current form, the recent BMW Championship victory, the driving ability and the approach-game quality required for Bellerive. More importantly, his victory in Memphis addressed one of the only questions surrounding his season: his inability to turn a long run of excellent finishes into wins. The 8-shot victory removes much of that concern.
McIlroy is the obvious counterargument. At +1375, his price is far larger than the +450 to +600 range often associated with him in elite fields. However, his current form is impossible to overlook. He finished 66th of 68 players at TPC Southwind at 8 over par and never shot under par during the tournament. McIlroy acknowledged that he felt lost with his swing and specifically cited problems with his driver and tee-to-green play. He has only played Bellerive competitively once, finishing T50 at the 2018 PGA Championship.
Sam Burns is perhaps the strongest alternative among the shorter prices. He finished T3 at the St. Jude after a T2 at The Open, and his recent run places him firmly in the group of golfers with the form profile associated with previous BMW winners. At +1475, however, the market has already accounted for much of that improvement.
The PGA Tour lists Bellerive at 7,448 yards and par 70 for the 2026 BMW Championship. The course was originally designed by Robert Trent Jones Sr. and has hosted the 1965 U.S. Open, the 1992 PGA Championship, the 2008 BMW Championship and the 2018 PGA Championship.
Bellerive's defining feature is its combination of length and demanding green complexes. The large Bentgrass greens are heavily undulating, while deep bunkers and water hazards create consequences for inaccurate approaches. The fairways use Zoysia grass, giving the course a different feel from the Bentgrass putting surfaces.
The layout has already demonstrated that elite power can be a major advantage. Brooks Koepka won the 2018 PGA Championship at 16 under par, with Tiger Woods finishing second, Adam Scott third, and Jon Rahm tied for fourth. Gary Woodland also finished T6. That leaderboard is instructive because it featured several players known for combining length with strong tee-to-green play.
The course should therefore favor golfers who can generate speed without sacrificing too much accuracy. Driving distance matters, but it should not be viewed in isolation.
Ultimately, the strongest betting case remains Scheffler. The market has made him a substantial favorite for good reason, but +300 still leaves room for value if his true winning probability is closer to 31% than the 25% implied by the price. His recent 8-shot victory, elite tee-to-green game, experience as the defending BMW champion, and strong fit for Bellerive make him the most logical outright selection in the field. The recommended play is Scheffler at +300, with +225 the maximum price threshold before the estimated value disappears.
