Updated March 14, 2026
The Big West Conference championship game brings together two of the league’s top programs as Hawai'i faces UC Irvine on Saturday night. Both teams advanced through the semifinals with convincing wins and now meet with an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament on the line. UC Irvine entered the event at the top of the standings and backed it up with a dominant semifinal performance, while Hawai'i reached the final after a strong defensive showing against Cal State Fullerton. Before tip-off from Henderson, continue reading for my Hawaii vs UC Irvine prediction.
The biggest storyline entering the championship game is the split regular-season series between these teams. Hawai'i won the first meeting 67-66 in a tight defensive battle, while UC Irvine responded with an 87-76 overtime victory in late January. That game showed the offensive potential of the Anteaters when their perimeter players create space for their interior scoring options. Both teams won on their home floor, making this an unpredictable title game on a neutral floor.
Another key factor is defense. Both of these teams have allowed under 70 points per game so far this season and will try to shut down their opponents on this big stage. The team that can find an offensive breakthrough in this matchup should be able to combine that with solid defense to win the conference title.
Rebounding will likely determine the outcome. UC Irvine holds an advantage on the glass thanks to its size and interior presence, while Hawai'i thrives when it forces turnovers and turns them into transition opportunities. If the Warriors can control tempo and limit second-chance points, they will have a strong opportunity to keep this game close into the final minutes.
Stat | Hawai'i | UC Irvine |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 79.9 | 77.8 |
Points allowed per game | 69.9 | 68.4 |
Team Field Goal % | 46% | 47% |
Rebounds Per Game | 39.2 | 40.4 |
Assists Per Game | 13.6 | 16.3 |
This championship matchup features two teams that mirror each other defensively, which suggests a tight contest decided by execution in the final minutes. Hawai'i has shown the ability to slow games down and protect the paint, but UC Irvine’s rebounding edge and interior defense could tilt the balance in their favor.
The Anteaters also bring a slightly deeper offensive rotation and already proved they can break through Hawai'i’s defense during their overtime win earlier this season. With Evans protecting the rim and Dixon creating offense, UC Irvine holds a slight advantage in a game that should remain competitive throughout. I project a four-point win for the Anteaters and for UC Irvine to win the Big West and get to the NCAA Tournament.
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