Updated March 9, 2026
Baylor and Arizona State meet on Tuesday in the first game of the 2026 Big 12 Tournament. Both programs enter the game at 16-15 overall with losing records in the Big 12, which makes this showdown an elimination game for these NCAA Tournament hopefuls. Without either team playing well enough to earn an at-large bid, both teams are hoping that this Baylor vs Arizona State game will be a springboard to an automatic bid.
Pick: Baylor -2.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5
This game is a rematch between two teams that met in February, when Baylor pulled out a 73-68 victory. That result extended Baylor’s strong record against Arizona State in their all-time meetings. Baylor enters the game after winning 3 of its last 5 games and coming off a dominant offensive performance against Utah. In that contest, the Bears shot more than 60% from the field, scored over 100 points, and showed the scoring depth that has made them dangerous throughout the season.
Arizona State has been far less consistent during the same stretch. The Sun Devils have gone 2-3 in their last 5 games and are coming off an 86-65 loss to Iowa State. Arizona State has covered the spread frequently this season and has performed well as an underdog against several conference opponents. But they will have their hands full against a Baylor team that showed some major firepower in their regular-season finale.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Baylor Bears
Stat | Baylor | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 82.7 | 77.2 |
Points allowed per game | 77.0 | 77.9 |
Team Field Goal % | 48% | 45% |
Rebounds per game | 36.8 | 33.3 |
Assists per game | 15.9 | 14.0 |
Score Projection: Baylor 80 – Arizona State 77 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Baylor 56%, Arizona State 44% ATS PRO
This contest features two evenly matched teams with identical records, but Baylor holds a slight edge due to its offensive firepower and recent scoring output. The Bears have already defeated Arizona State once this season and have shown the ability to produce points in bunches against conference opponents. I'll lay the points with Baylor here, as they should advance to the second round of the Big 12 tourney.
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