Baylor and Arizona State meet on Tuesday in the first game of the 2026 Big 12 Tournament. Both programs enter the game at 16-15 overall with losing records in the Big 12, which makes this showdown an elimination game for these NCAA Tournament hopefuls. Without either team playing well enough to earn an at-large bid, both teams are hoping that this Baylor vs Arizona State game will be a springboard to an automatic bid.
Our Baylor vs Arizona State Pick
Pick:
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Baylor Bears @ Arizona State Sun Devils
- Date & Time: Tuesday, March 10, 12:30 PM ET
- Venue: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, Missouri
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
This game is a rematch between two teams that met in February, when Baylor pulled out a 73-68 victory. That result extended Baylor’s strong record against Arizona State in their all-time meetings. Baylor enters the game after winning 3 of its last 5 games and coming off a dominant offensive performance against Utah. In that contest, the Bears shot more than 60% from the field, scored over 100 points, and showed the scoring depth that has made them dangerous throughout the season.
Arizona State has been far less consistent during the same stretch. The Sun Devils have gone 2-3 in their last 5 games and are coming off an 86-65 loss to Iowa State. Arizona State has covered the spread frequently this season and has performed well as an underdog against several conference opponents. But they will have their hands full against a Baylor team that showed some major firepower in their regular-season finale.
Key Players
Arizona State Sun Devils
- Maurice Odum – The leading scorer for ASU, Odum is averaging over 17 points per game and will need to have one of his biggest games of the season if the Sun Devils are going to advance to the second round of this tournament.
- Massamba Diop – The team’s rim protector and top rebounder, Diop is averaging just under six rebounds per game and has to generate second-chance opportunities for his team for them to be competitive here.
Baylor Bears
- Cameron Carr – Baylor’s leading scorer and primary scoring threat. Carr averages about 19 points per game while shooting over 50% from the field on the season.
- Caden Powell – Powell averages just over six rebounds per game and he will be tasked with outperforming Diop on the glass for Baylor to control this game and avoid giving up too many second-chance opportunities.
Stat Comparison
| Stat | Baylor | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 82.7 | 77.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 77.0 | 77.9 |
| Team Field Goal % | 48% | 45% |
| Rebounds per game | 36.8 | 33.3 |
| Assists per game | 15.9 | 14.0 |
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Baylor defeated Arizona State 73-68 in their previous meeting this season.
- The Bears are 7-0 all-time against the Sun Devils.
- Baylor is 14-16 against the spread this season.
- Arizona State is 19-11-1 against the spread going into postseason play.
Baylor vs Arizona State Model Projection
Score Projection:
Win Probability:
Final Thoughts
More College Basketball Picks
