Updated September 8, 2026
Aryna Sabalenka continues her pursuit of a third straight US Open title Tuesday against reigning Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova in one of the strongest women’s quarterfinals on the schedule. Sabalenka enters the match as the world No. 1 and has yet to lose a set in New York, while No. 6 Noskova has shown again that her Wimbledon breakthrough was no isolated run. Polymarket currently prices Sabalenka at 70¢, representing a 70% implied probability, with Noskova at 31¢.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“Noskova's Wimbledon title deserves considerable weight, but her recent matches in New York have required more work than Sabalenka's. The market appears to be giving Noskova slightly too much credit for her grass-court peak while underselling Sabalenka's sustained dominance at this specific event.”
Will Sabalenka's Winning Streak Continue?
Sabalenka has won 18 consecutive matches at the US Open after beating Taylor Townsend 6-4, 6-3 in the fourth round. More importantly for this matchup, she has reached the quarterfinal without dropping a set. Noskova arrives after a much more demanding 7-5, 5-7, 6-4 victory over Marta Kostyuk, a match in which she had to recover after failing to finish the contest in the second set.
Don't Count Out Noskova Entirely
That does not make Noskova an easy opponent. Far from it. She won Wimbledon earlier this summer and has already proved capable of sustaining her attacking game across 7 matches at a major. Still, at a current 70¢ price, Sabalenka offers enough separation between the market probability and my projection to qualify as the preferred prediction.
Recommended Prediction:
Sabalenka to Win
Current Market Price:
70¢
Model Win Probability:
74%
Market-Implied Probability:
70%
Model Edge:
4%
Buy Up To:
73¢
Model Trade Confidence:
74/100
Sabalenka owns a 2-0 record against Noskova entering Tuesday. Their most recent meeting came in the Indian Wells semifinals in March, where Sabalenka won 6-3, 6-4 before going on to capture the title.
Noskova's usual method of controlling opponents has not been enough to push Sabalenka out of her preferred patterns. Both players want to shorten points, take the ball early, and dictate with pace. Sabalenka has historically been better at doing that when they share the court.
Noskova herself has acknowledged that Tuesday should produce extremely fast tennis. There should be fewer long neutral exchanges than we saw in some earlier rounds because neither player wants to surrender the baseline.
Sabalenka's previous match was hardly perfect. Townsend broke her serve 4 times, and the match featured 11 total breaks across 19 games. Sabalenka nevertheless found another route to victory, breaking Townsend 7 times and taking the final 4 games of the second set.
That ability to win comfortably on the scoreboard without serving at her best is important. Noskova has far more baseline power than Townsend, but she does not bring Townsend's constant variation, left-handed patterns, and willingness to attack the net.
Sabalenka should see a more familiar type of ball Tuesday. That can help her establish rhythm from the baseline, particularly on the return.
New York also remains one of her strongest environments. She has won the previous 2 US Open singles titles and has reached her sixth consecutive quarterfinal at the event. Her current winning streak at Flushing Meadows stands at 18 matches.
Noskova's 2026 season changed completely when she won Wimbledon for her first major championship. She followed that accomplishment by reaching her first US Open quarterfinal, confirming that her game translates beyond grass.
Her path through New York has required more work than Sabalenka's. Noskova beat Ann Li 6-2, 6-7, 6-2 in the third round after missing a chance to serve out the match in the second set. She then needed another 3-set contest against Kostyuk in the fourth round.
Against Kostyuk, Noskova won just 50.2% of the total points. Her second serve was effective, producing a 52.2% win rate, but she faced 7 break points and saved only 2. Kostyuk also won 71% of her first-serve points. Noskova cannot expect to repeatedly escape service games after giving Sabalenka looks at second serves or short balls.
The biggest question is who controls the first 3 shots of each rally. Noskova has enough power to keep Sabalenka from immediately stepping inside the baseline, and her first serve can create short points.
The difference is Sabalenka's return game. She can turn a neutral Noskova serve into an attacking opportunity remarkably quickly, and that puts greater pressure on Noskova to find corners rather than simply serve hard.
Noskova's best path is to keep her first-serve percentage high and prevent Sabalenka from settling into repeated second-serve returns. If Sabalenka begins taking those returns from inside the baseline, Noskova will spend too many points defending immediately after the serve.
At 70¢ on Polymarket, Sabalenka remains my preferred prediction. My 74% projection creates a 4% edge, enough to support the position while acknowledging that Noskova is a considerably stronger opponent than anyone Sabalenka has faced so far in New York.
