Updated September 10, 2026
Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula meet Thursday, September 10, in a US Open semifinal that has become one of the biggest matches of the hard-court season. Sabalenka arrives as the defending champion and current world No. 1, while No. 3 Pegula is appearing in the New York semifinals for a 3rd consecutive year. Both were pushed hard in the quarterfinals, as Sabalenka survived Linda Noskova 7-6, 3-6, 7-6, while Pegula recovered from a poor opening set to defeat Emma Navarro 3-6, 6-4, 6-3.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“Sabalenka has the superior long-term matchup record, stronger history against Pegula on the US Open courts, and greater ability to create quick points behind her first strike style of tennis.”
Weighting the Matchup History
Polymarket currently lists Sabalenka at 65¢ and Pegula at 36¢. That starting point does not appear to fully account for Sabalenka's established edge in this specific matchup. My projection makes Sabalenka a 70% favorite, creating a 7% gap between the model and the available prediction-market price.
Pegula Has a Shot, Though
Pegula has beaten Sabalenka twice in their last 3 meetings, including a 4-6, 7-6, 6-0 victory on grass in Berlin in June. She also defeated Sabalenka in Wuhan last October. But surface and setting matter. Sabalenka has beaten Pegula in each of their last 2 US Open meetings, winning the 2024 final 7-5, 7-5 before rallying for a 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 semifinal victory in 2025.
Recommended Prediction:
Sabalenka to Win
Current Market Price:
65¢
Model Win Probability:
70%
Market-Implied Probability:
65%
Model Edge:
5%
Buy Up To:
68¢
Model Trade Confidence:
80/100
Sabalenka owns the career advantage in this matchup. WTA match notes show her leading Pegula 9-3 through their 2025 WTA Finals meeting, before Pegula won their next encounter in Berlin this June. That puts the full series at 9-4 for Sabalenka entering Thursday.
The recent results are much less one-sided. Pegula defeated Sabalenka in a deciding-set tiebreak in Wuhan in 2025 and then dominated the final set of their Berlin semifinal this season. Sabalenka, however, won their 2025 WTA Finals match in 3 sets and has consistently had the better of Pegula in New York.
Sabalenka has reached her 6th consecutive US Open semifinal and remains in position to win the tournament for a 3rd straight year. Her first 4 matches in New York were all completed in straight sets, including a 6-4, 6-3 fourth-round victory over Taylor Townsend.
Noskova provided a much more serious examination of Sabalenka in the quarterfinals. Sabalenka lost the second set and trailed by a break in the deciding set before recovering to win the final tiebreak. Noskova hit 18 aces and saved 7 of 9 break points, yet Sabalenka still found a way through.
Pegula has already collected her 50th victory of the 2026 season, becoming the first woman on tour to reach that figure this year. Her US Open run has featured both comfortable wins and difficult recoveries.
She beat Elena-Gabriela Ruse 6-3, 6-2 and Sofia Kenin 6-3, 6-1 before needing 3 sets against Leylah Fernandez. Pegula then defeated Sorana Cirstea 6-3, 6-4 to reach the quarterfinals.
Navarro threatened to end the run for Pegula on Wednesday. Pegula dropped the first set 6-3 and had to fight through a match containing repeated service breaks and errors from both sides. She eventually took control well enough to win the next 2 sets 6-4, 6-3.
Sabalenka's biggest advantage is her ability to shorten rallies. Pegula is an outstanding ball striker when she can plant herself near the baseline and use an opponent's pace, so simply hitting hard at her is not enough. Sabalenka needs depth, direction changes and a steady supply of free points from the serve.
Pegula's compact strokes make her particularly dangerous on return. She can take a big first serve early and redirect it without a long swing. That is one reason she has caused Sabalenka problems in several recent meetings.
The difference may come on second-serve points. If Pegula regularly starts rallies against Sabalenka's second delivery, she can turn the matchup into a much more balanced baseline contest. If Sabalenka protects that shot and keeps Pegula from attacking immediately, her overall power advantage becomes more difficult to neutralize.
Sabalenka's error count is the number one key to this match. Pegula does not have to outhit her. She needs to absorb the first wave, keep enough balls deep, and make Sabalenka strike one additional aggressive shot.
That formula has worked before. Pegula's victories in Wuhan and Berlin showed that Sabalenka can become less efficient when points continue beyond her initial attack. Pegula is also comfortable changing direction from the baseline rather than simply defending crosscourt.
Still, the New York history is difficult to dismiss. Sabalenka beat Pegula in the 2024 championship match and again in the 2025 semifinal, and she enters this meeting with a 9-4 career advantage. Her quarterfinal was filled with ups and downs, but she has been the stronger player across the tournament as a whole, and we'll take her to win here.
