The reigning world record holder in the men’s 200m breaststroke will headline the field in that race in the Paris Olympics. China’s Qin Haiyang has the best track record in the 200 breaststroke, but young star Leon Marchand of France will headline the group of swimmers looking to take the gold away from him. Here, we break down the Olympic men’s 200m breaststroke field, the odds to win the race, and we pick our winner to come out on top of this event from France.
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Olympic Men’s 200m Breaststroke Betting Odds
| Swimmer | Gold Medal Odds |
| Qin Haiyang | +155 |
| Leon Marchand | +260 |
| Zac Stubblety-Cook | +320 |
| Matt Fallon | +430 |
| Ippei Watanabe | +2100 |
| Yu Hanaguruma | +3900 |
| Dong Zhihao | +5500 |
| Joshua Yong | +6000 |
| Arno Kamminga | +6500 |
| Caspar Corbeau | +7000 |
| Anton McKee | +10000 |
| Josh Matheny | +10000 |
| Matti Mattsson | +10000 |
| Lyubomir Epitropov | +12000 |
| Cho Sung-jae | +12000 |
| Erik Persson | +12000 |
| Miguel de Lara | +19000 |
| Aleksas Savickas | +19000 |
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook
The favorite to win the Olympic men’s 200m backstroke is Qin Haiyang of China. He set the world record in this distance in the breaststroke in his gold medal winning swim at the World Championships in Japan in 2023. Meanwhile, Leon Marchand of France, Zac Stubblety-Cook of Australia, and Matt Fallon of the United States join Haiyang as the only other men inside of +500 to win the gold medal in this race.
Olympic Men’s 200m Breaststroke Major Storylines
While Haiyang has the best past performance of any swimmer in this field, the top story going into the Olympic men’s 200m breaststroke is how Leon Marchand will perform. The Frenchman dusted the field in the men’s 400m individual medley earlier this week, taking the gold medal in convincing fashion in that event. But he has never really competed in the 200m breaststroke by itself at a major event and will need to prove himself right away on the biggest stage in swimming.
Whether Zac Stubblety-Cook of Australia can defend both his gold medal from the 2021 Tokyo Olympics and his Olympic record in this event is also going to be a major storyline in this race. Stubblety-Cook did not have to face Haiyang in that event, as Haiyang was disqualified in the prelims for making an illegal kick on a turn, which paved the way for Stubblety-Cook to cruise to the gold.
Olympic Men’s 200m Breaststroke Medal Contenders
There are four main medal contenders that should stand out above the rest in the men’s 200m breaststroke. Haiyang, Marchand, Stubblety-Cook, and Fallon are all a cut above the rest according to oddsmakers. For those looking for a potential medalist at longer odds, Dutch swimmer Arno Kamminga could fill that void, having won silver in this race in Tokyo. But the three podium slots should be occupied by three of the four men at the top of the board in this event.
Men’s 200m Breaststroke Betting Prediction: Qin Haiyang (+155)
In the Olympic men’s 200m breaststroke final, we will take Qin Haiyang to win the gold medal as a slight favorite over Leon Marchand. While Marchand was certainly impressive in the 400m IM, his lack of experience in this breaststroke race on big stages should work in the favor of Haiyang, who will be out for redemption after his disqualification in Tokyo in this event and failing to medal in the 100m breaststroke earlier in this meet.
