2026 Olympic Ski Jumping Men’s Individual Large Hill Prediction

The men’s large hill ski jumping competition at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milano Cortina is always popular. The athleticism of the athletes and the danger of those athletes launching themselves off a huge hill into the void is appointment viewing. Here, the Olympic favorite will try to atone for a lackluster start to his Milano-Cortina Games. Before the jumps commence, continue reading for my men’s large hill ski jumping prediction.

Olympic Men’s Large Hill Ski Jumping Betting Odds

The current betting odds for the men’s large hill individual ski jumping event show a clear favorite and several viable challengers to him:

• Domen Prevc (Slovenia): -250
• Ren Nikaido (Japan): +1000
• Philipp Raimund (Germany): +1400
• Ryoyu Kobayashi (Japan): +1600
• Jan Hoerl (Austria): +1600
• Stephan Embacher (Austria): +1600
• Anze Lanisek (Slovenia): +1600
• Kacper Tomasiak (POL): +2000
• Kristoffer Eriksen Sundal (NOR): +2000
• Marius Lindvik (Norway): +2500
• Daniel Tschofenig (Austria): +3300
• Stefan Kraft (Austria): +4000
• All Others: +6600 or more

Olympic Men’s Large Hill Ski Jumping Major Storylines

The top storyline heading into the large hill competition centers on the form of Slovenia’s Domen Prevc. Prevc enters the Olympics as the World Cup leader and reigning World Champion on the large hill, a status earned by dominating the 2025 FIS Nordic World Ski Championships with a commanding performance that secured him the title. His consistent excellence during the season has made him the market favorite, and his strong track record makes him a natural choice for the top spot on the podium. At just 25 years old, he has experience and current top form that few can match, though he faltered on the normal hill.

Another huge story is the resurgence of Japan’s Ryoyu Kobayashi. He secured victory at the Lillehammer World Cup event in late 2025, showing veteran form and an ability to battle through tough conditions and fierce competition. Kobayashi’s Olympic experience and past gold medal have made him a significant contender and a logical value pick for bettors willing to take a chance on a higher‑return outcome. While Prevc has been a dominant force overall, Kobayashi’s World Cup win highlights his capacity to deliver at the highest level.

Marius Lindvik of Norway, the 2022 Olympic champion on the large hill, is not the favorite this time around. Recent results and equipment scrutiny briefings have affected his status, but his experience as a past Olympic winner ensures that he should not be counted out. Meanwhile, Philipp Raimund of Germany is fresh off a normal hill gold medal at these Games, and enters as a long shot for large hill success. His Olympic performance thus far suggests he is peaking at the right time and could pull off an upset if his technique holds on the longer hill.

Olympic Men’s Large Hill Ski Jumping Medal Contenders

1. Domen Prevc (Slovenia) – World Cup leader, 2025 world champion, and clear favorite.
2. Ryoyu Kobayashi (Japan) – Olympic gold medalist with a recent World Cup victory.
3. Jan Hoerl (Austria) – Austria’s most consistent jumper this season.
4. Daniel Tschofenig (Austria) – Multiple World Cup winner and major podium threat.
5. Anze Lanisek (Slovenia) – Reliable performer who can capitalize on form.
6. Marius Lindvik (Norway) – Former Olympic champ, capable of a big performance.
7. Stefan Kraft (Austria) – Experienced competitor with potential to break into contention.
8. Philipp Raimund (Germany) – Lower‑priced long shot with Olympic gold momentum.

Men’s Large Hill Ski Jumping Betting Prediction

Pick:

Confidence: 4 out of 5

Final Thoughts

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.