Updated September 9, 2026
Stuttgart begin their Champions League league-phase campaign at home against Viking on Wednesday, September 9. VfB are overwhelming favorites to win, which makes the moneyline difficult to justify at its current price. The more interesting betting question is whether Stuttgart can turn that superiority into a victory by two goals or more.
The ATS Quantitative Model approaches the matchup from a different direction, with Over 3.5 goals as its pick. My preferred angle is Stuttgart -1.5. The two bets are not built on completely different game scripts: both require Stuttgart to generate significant attacking pressure, but the spread allows us to focus more specifically on the gap between the two teams rather than relying on four total goals.
There is enough evidence to make the spread interesting.
Stuttgart have already produced two convincing attacking performances this season. They opened with a 4-0 German Cup win at Hansa Rostock, then suffered a 5-1 defeat at Bayern Munich before responding with an emphatic 4-1 Bundesliga victory over Cologne. Bilal El Khannouss, Grischa Prömel, Ermedin Demirović and Josha Vagnoman all scored against Cologne.
The tactical setup could also suit the favorite. Sebastian Hoeneß expects Viking to defend from a relatively deep position and has made it clear that Stuttgart want to keep the tempo high and dictate the match. He also highlighted transitions and set pieces as areas where VfB cannot afford to become careless.
That last point matters for a -1.5 bet. Stuttgart do not necessarily need to keep a clean sheet, but conceding first or allowing Viking to keep the game at 1-0 deep into the second half would make covering considerably harder.
Personnel-wise, Stuttgart came through the Cologne win without any new injuries. Luca Jaquez and Nikolas Nartey are moving closer to full training, while Dennis Seimen, Dan-Axel Zagadou, Tiago Tomás and Justin Diehl remain sidelined.
Editor's notes
“I’m taking a slightly different route from the ATS Quantitative Model here. The model likes Over 3.5 goals, while I prefer Stuttgart -1.5. Viking are a good side and I wouldn’t be surprised if they score, but I think Stuttgart’s advantage over 90 minutes is more dependable than simply betting on four goals. At home, I expect VfB to control most of the game and eventually create enough separation to cover.”
The biggest argument against Stuttgart -1.5 is that Viking are not arriving in Germany as an ordinary long-shot Champions League opponent.
They sit second in Norway's Eliteserien with a 14-2-3 record after 19 matches, scoring 43 goals and conceding only 19. They have also been respectable away from home domestically, going 6-2-3.
More importantly, Viking earned their place in this competition by eliminating Dinamo Zagreb. They drew 2-2 in Croatia before winning the second leg 3-1, giving them a 5-3 aggregate victory. Their recent run also includes a 2-1 win over Aalesund and a 1-1 draw at Sandefjord.
Zlatko Tripić is an obvious player for Stuttgart to monitor. He has been one of Viking's most productive attackers domestically and scored in both legs against Dinamo Zagreb.
So this is not a case where I expect Stuttgart to simply overwhelm an opponent incapable of responding. Viking can threaten on the counter and have enough attacking quality to score.
The question is whether they can keep Stuttgart within one goal for 90 minutes. I am less convinced of that.
The outright market tells us just how large the perceived gap is. Current U.S. sportsbook prices have Stuttgart roughly between -400 and -450 at DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM in recent market snapshots, with Viking around +900 to +1000. That gives Stuttgart an implied win probability around 80% or higher before accounting for sportsbook margin.
At those prices, the moneyline offers very little appeal.
The spread is more reasonable. Stuttgart -1.5 has moved into roughly the -160 to -175 range, with the current ATS odds feed showing FanDuel at -160. A -160 price implies a break-even probability of about 61.5%.
Polymarket is slightly more cautious. Traders currently price Stuttgart -1.5 at about 58-59%, while Over 3.5 is also around 59%. Stuttgart are around 78% to win outright. The spread market has attracted roughly $23,000 in trading volume, so I would use it as an additional point of comparison rather than treating it as a definitive forecast.
That difference is worth acknowledging. Polymarket's spread probability is a little below the break-even point on -160, so this is not a bet I would chase if the sportsbook price continues getting shorter.
The advantage of the spread over the total, for me, is the range of outcomes it covers. A 2-0 Stuttgart win cashes -1.5 but leaves Over 3.5 short. I am more confident in Stuttgart creating separation than I am in requiring the match to produce four goals.
The ATS Quantitative Model's Over 3.5 selection makes sense in a matchup where Stuttgart should spend significant time attacking and Viking have demonstrated they can contribute offensively.
I prefer to isolate Stuttgart's advantage.
Viking's domestic record deserves respect, and their performance against Dinamo Zagreb is enough to rule out treating this as a routine mismatch. But Stuttgart are stepping down considerably in opposition after facing Bayern, looked dangerous in the 4-1 win over Cologne and should control possession and territory at home.
If Stuttgart score early, Viking will eventually have to become more ambitious, which is precisely where the opportunity for a second or third VfB goal should emerge.
Pick: Stuttgart -1.5 at -160 (FanDuel)
I would play it around the current price at -160, but would become more cautious once it moves beyond roughly -175.