Updated September 10, 2026
PSV enter Thursday's Champions League opener against Shakhtar Donetsk in outstanding attacking form, which makes their heavy moneyline price understandable. Instead of laying more than -200 on the Dutch champions, however, I'm looking directly at the player most likely to finish their chances.
The ATS quantitative model already likes Both Teams to Score — Yes. My complementary play is Ricardo Pepi to score anytime at +105, with BetRivers offering the best price at the time of writing. This also gives us a much more interesting wager than simply backing PSV to win.
PSV are clear home favorites
Polymarket traders currently give PSV roughly a 69% chance of winning, reflecting the Dutch side’s strong start and home advantage. Shakhtar remain dangerous enough that this is not being priced as a one-sided mismatch.
The market expects Shakhtar to contribute
Shakhtar are priced at roughly a 67% chance to score at least once. That supports the ATS quantitative model’s BTTS Yes angle and suggests PSV may need more than one goal to win comfortably.
The goal market points toward an open game
Over 3.5 goals is trading around 45% on Polymarket. With PSV scoring 14 goals across their last three league games, the market is clearly allowing for another high-scoring performance.
Recommended Prediction
Ricardo Pepi Anytime Goalscorer
Current Market Price
+105
Sportsbook
BetRivers
Market-Implied Probability
48.8%
ATS Quantitative Pick
BTTS - Yes
ATS Model Probability
64%
Polymarket PSV Win Probability
69%
Ricardo Pepi offers a more appealing way to back PSV’s attack than the heavily juiced moneyline. He is starting regularly, scoring goals and can be backed at +105.
Polymarket provides useful context for the expected game script.
Traders are pricing PSV at roughly 69% to win, while Shakhtar are around 67% to score at least once. Over 3.5 goals is also trading at approximately 45%.
That broadly supports the ATS model's expectation of a game in which both teams can contribute without requiring us to simply bet BTTS again.
If PSV are going to score two or three times, Pepi is the most obvious candidate to get one of them.
The ATS quantitative prediction for PSV vs Shakhtar Donetsk gives BTTS Yes a 64% probability, compared with approximately 60% implied by the available market price.
That makes sense given the way both teams have started the season, but I don't want to duplicate the same argument.
Instead, I'm concentrating on the PSV side of the scoring equation — and specifically Pepi.
This isn't a case of chasing a recognizable striker who may only get 20 minutes.
UEFA's latest projected PSV lineup has Pepi starting through the middle, supported by Ivan Perišić and Ruben van Bommel, with Guus Til operating behind the attack.
Pepi has started all five Eredivisie matches this season and played 391 league minutes. He has scored three goals, including the opener in PSV's 3-1 win away at Ajax last weekend. He also found the net against Groningen and Excelsior.
The shot volume is encouraging as well. Pepi has taken 17 shots in five league appearances, including five attempts against Excelsior and another five against Groningen.
That is the profile I want for an anytime scorer bet: a starting striker, regular minutes and consistent involvement in a high-scoring attack.
Editor's notes
“Ricardo Pepi is the player I want to back in this matchup. He is starting regularly, getting consistent shot volume and leading the line for a PSV side that has been scoring freely. At +105, the price is more appealing than laying heavy juice on PSV to win.”
PSV have scored 18 goals through five Eredivisie matches, an average of 3.6 per game.
More importantly, the attack appears to be getting stronger rather than slowing down. PSV beat Groningen 5-1, Utrecht 6-1 and Ajax 3-1 in their last three league games, scoring 14 goals across those three matches.
Shakhtar arrive in decent form themselves. Arda Turan's side have won four of their opening five Ukrainian Premier League matches and most recently came from behind to beat Karpaty 2-1.
They have conceded only four league goals, so this isn't a defense I want to describe as weak.
But PSV in Eindhoven are a very different attacking test.
There is also some relevant history here. When these clubs met in Eindhoven in the Champions League in November 2024, Shakhtar led 2-0 before PSV produced a remarkable late comeback. Pepi scored the winner in stoppage time to complete a 3-2 victory.
I wouldn't build the bet around something that happened two years ago, but it is an interesting subplot for the American striker.
At the latest check, BetRivers has Ricardo Pepi anytime goalscorer at +105.
BetMGM was offering roughly -105 on the same market, making the BetRivers number considerably more attractive.
Odds of +105 carry an implied probability of approximately 48.8%.
I don't need to argue that Pepi scores more often than not over the long term. I need him to have roughly a one-in-two chance in this specific matchup, with PSV favored to win and expected to generate the majority of the attacking pressure.
At plus money, that's a price I'm willing to take.
There are plenty of ways to back PSV here, but the moneyline at roughly -220 doesn't interest me. PSV -1.5 also requires them to create separation against a Shakhtar side that has defended well domestically.
Pepi gives us a cleaner route.
He has started every league match, scored three times already, found the net at Ajax five days ago and is projected to lead the line again.
With PSV having scored 14 goals across their last three league games, +105 is enough for me to attack the player market instead of laying a heavy price on the home favorite.
ATS Expert Pick: Ricardo Pepi Anytime Goalscorer (+105, BetRivers) or 46¢ at Polymarket at the time of writing.
