Updated September 10, 2026
Liverpool host Fulham at Anfield on Saturday with the league table presenting a potentially misleading picture of both teams. Andoni Iraola’s side have taken five points from their opening three matches and are unbeaten, while Fulham have lost all three under Álvaro Arbeloa. Liverpool have the stronger underlying profile, generating 7.5 xG and conceding 4.0 xGA through three matches, but Fulham’s record badly misrepresents their performances. Arbeloa’s side have created 6.85 xG while conceding 4.55 xGA, leaving them with a +2.3 expected-goal differential despite taking no points. That makes Fulham +1.5 more interesting than their league position suggests.
That disconnect is important when assessing a market that currently prices Liverpool at 68¢, Fulham at 14¢, and the draw at 19¢. Liverpool should still be favored at Anfield, but the better value may lie in backing Fulham to stay within the handicap rather than paying a premium for the home moneyline.
Why There is Value in the Fulham Handicap
“Liverpool have been the stronger side through three games, but Fulham’s record significantly understates their underlying performances. The visitors have generated 6.85 xG from three matches and carry a positive expected-goal differential, while Liverpool are conceding 1.33 xGA per game and come into this after a demanding Champions League win over Atlético Madrid. At 58¢, Fulham +1.5 asks them simply to avoid losing by two or more, which our projection makes considerably more likely than the market price implies.”
The numbers behind the value
Liverpool are currently around 68¢ to win, with Fulham at 14¢ and the draw at 19¢. The more interesting number is the spread, where Liverpool -1.5 is approximately 44¢ and Fulham +1.5 is 57¢. The market is therefore assigning roughly a 44% chance to Liverpool winning by at least two goals, yet the underlying data does not show a matchup between an elite process and a relegation-level one. Liverpool’s +3.5 xGD through three games is excellent, but Fulham’s approximately +2.3 xGD is also among the better early-season marks despite producing zero points. My matchup model, using early-season attacking and defensive xG rates with a home adjustment and regression toward last season’s levels, puts Fulham +1.5 at around 64%. That leaves a seven-point gap over the 57¢ market price.
Recommended Prediction:
Fulham +1.5
Current Market Price:
58¢
Model Win Probability:
64%
Market-Implied Probability:
58%
Model Edge:
6%
Buy Up To:
61¢
Model Trade Confidence:
73/100
Liverpool’s five points from three games actually undersell how well they have played. They have generated around 2.51 xG per game, fourth-best in the league, while conceding only 1.33 xGA per game. Their individual match numbers reinforce that point: Liverpool produced 3.7 xG at Newcastle, 2.6 against Forest and another 1.2 xG at Ipswich, winning the chance creation battle in all three.
The concern for Fulham is therefore obvious. Liverpool are not relying on unsustainable finishing or low-volume wins; they are consistently creating enough chances to score multiple goals. Their 6 actual goals from approximately 7.5 xG even suggests there has been some attacking underperformance rather than overperformance.
Fulham’s start looks disastrous in the table, but their chance creation tells a completely different story. They have accumulated approximately 6.85 xG across three matches, including 1.99 against Chelsea and a remarkable 3.95 against Crystal Palace last weekend.
Against Palace, Fulham took 22 shots, had 63.2% possession and created almost four expected goals, yet still lost 3-2. They have scored only 4 league goals from 6.85 xG, while conceding seven despite allowing around 4.6 xGA. That combination of attacking underperformance and defensive overconcession is one of the clearest early regression signals in the league.
It does not mean Fulham suddenly become favorites at Anfield, but it does make their record so far a poor reason by itself to expect a heavy Liverpool win.
Liverpool’s strongest route is through sustained pressure rather than purely transitional football. Iraola’s side have generated 4.8 open-play xG and another 1.9 xG from set pieces, with their 0.96 set-piece xG per game ranking among the best marks in the division. Fulham, however, have defended dead-ball situations reasonably well so far, conceding only 0.28 set-piece xGA per game.
The more significant mismatch may come when Liverpool force Fulham deeper and create overloads around Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak. Yet Liverpool are not airtight themselves: they have conceded four league goals and 1.33 xGA per game and proved particularly vulnerable on the counter attack against both Newcastle and Forest. Fulham will expect to soak up plenty of pressure from the favorites, but know that with the pace of Josh King and the runs in behind of Gonzalo Garcia, they can cause the hosts plenty of problems if they overcommit. That is also reflected in the market, which prices Fulham over 0.5 team goals at about 65¢.
Liverpool also played Atlético Madrid at Anfield on Wednesday night, coming from behind to win 2-1 in a physically demanding Champions League opener. Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai and several other likely starters all played significant minutes, while Bradley Barcola was withdrawn with cramp.
That does not materially change Liverpool’s status as favorites, but it matters when asking them to win by multiple goals three days later. Iraola has enough depth to rotate, particularly with Isak available, but this match could prove an early test of Liverpool's limited squad depth.
Liverpool’s attacking process is strong enough that a home win remains the single most likely result, but the underlying numbers do not support treating Fulham as a bottom-three side. The visitors have actually generated almost as much xG as Liverpool, have a positive expected-goal differential and are performing worse than expected in both penalty areas.
The key question is whether Fulham can convert enough of that chance creation into actual goals before Liverpool’s superior attacking quality takes control. If they produce anything close to the volume seen against Chelsea and Palace, forcing Liverpool to win by two clear goals becomes a considerably harder proposition.
At 58¢, Fulham +1.5 therefore offers more value than Liverpool at 68¢ or Liverpool -1.5 at 44¢. Our projection gives the visitors roughly a 64% chance of staying within one goal or better, producing a six-point edge over the current market.
Prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Fulham
Best value: Fulham +1.5 at 57¢
