Updated September 11, 2026
Tottenham host Everton on Saturday still looking for both their first Premier League win and their first league goal under Roberto De Zerbi. Spurs have taken one point from three matches, scoring zero times, and their latest performance produced a 0-0 draw at Nottingham Forest without a single shot on target.
Polymarket still gives Tottenham a 47% chance of winning, almost identical to Opta's 48.2% projection. That makes the straight moneyline difficult to argue with. The more appealing trade is elsewhere: Everton +1.5 goals is currently available at 77¢, meaning the position wins if Everton win, draw or lose by exactly one goal. Tottenham have to win by two or more for the trade to fail.
ATS Expert Verdict
“Tottenham might win this game, but that doesn’t mean they win it comfortably. Spurs are still trying to find their attacking rhythm, so Everton +1.5 is the more appealing way for me to approach it. I can be wrong about the outright result and still be right about the trade.”
Tottenham Still Haven’t Shown a Two-Goal Ceiling
Spurs are still looking for their first Premier League goal of the season, which makes it difficult to back them to win this match comfortably. Everton +1.5 only loses if Tottenham win by two or more, and right now Spurs have not shown enough attacking consistency to justify that expectation.
Everton Have More Ways to Keep This Close
This trade cashes if Everton win, draw, or even lose by exactly one goal. That gives us multiple favorable outcomes without needing Everton to be the better side. In a matchup where Tottenham are still searching for attacking rhythm, that cushion matters.
Recommended Trade
Everton +1.5
Current Polymarket Price:
77¢
Market-Implied Probability
77%
Trade Loses If:
Tottenham win by two or more goals
The case instead comes from the shape of the trade. A draw cashes. An Everton win cashes. Even a Tottenham breakthrough that ends 1-0 still cashes. That gives us several ways to be right without having to argue that Everton are the better team.
My preferred position is Everton +1.5 at 77¢ on Polymarket.
Buying at 77¢ represents an implied probability of roughly 77%. Correct shares settle at $1, so a winning trade bought at that price returns 23¢ of profit per share before any applicable fees.
That is not a particularly cheap position, but it fits this matchup better than trying to call the outright winner.
Polymarket currently prices Tottenham at 47¢, Everton at 27¢ and the draw at 27¢. Opta's simulations are remarkably similar: Tottenham win 48.2% of the time, Everton 27.1% and the draw 24.7%. There is very little disagreement to exploit in the match-winner market.
The +1.5 spread asks a different question: should a Tottenham team that has not scored a Premier League goal yet be expected to beat an unbeaten Everton side by multiple goals?
For now, I would rather bet against that happening.
Three scoreless games will naturally create talk of positive regression, and Tottenham probably will start scoring soon. But the underlying numbers do not suggest that Spurs have spent three matches battering opponents and somehow failed to convert.
They have generated only 2.59 xG through three Premier League matches, an average of 0.86 per game. Tottenham have attempted 37 shots, with only 10 hitting the target.
The individual match numbers tell a similar story. Spurs generated 0.47 xG against Brentford, 1.05 against Newcastle and 1.07 against Nottingham Forest.
That matters for Everton +1.5 because Tottenham do not merely need to improve enough to score. They need to improve enough to create the possibility of a two-goal winning margin.
Those are two very different thresholds.
Tottenham's summer overhaul also makes it difficult to assume an immediate offensive correction.
De Zerbi has already made eight changes to his Premier League starting XI, more than any other team at this stage of the season. James Maddison remains a doubt, while reports suggest Mykhailo Mudryk will be out in the coming 6-8 weeks, with an ankle injury.
Omar Marmoush, Sávio, Mathys Tel and the rest of Tottenham's attacking options offer plenty of talent, but the combinations are still developing.
That was apparent against Forest. Tottenham had almost 60% possession yet finished without a shot on target. Possession alone is not enough if attacks repeatedly stall before producing high-quality chances.
For this trade, that is more important than asking whether Tottenham eventually find their first goal.
Everton arrive unbeaten after taking five points from their opening three league matches.
David Moyes' side have scored five times while conceding three, most recently fighting back twice to draw 2-2 with Manchester United. Ainsley Maitland-Niles' stoppage-time equalizer preserved their unbeaten start.
There are reasons not to overrate those results.
Everton have allowed 4.95 xGA despite conceding only three goals, so their defensive record has been better than the chances they have allowed would normally suggest. They are also winless in their last six Premier League away matches.
But Everton +1.5 does not require us to ignore those weaknesses.
They can concede. They can be second-best. They can even lose.
They simply cannot lose by multiple goals.
There is an obvious argument against the trade: Tottenham's attacking talent is much better than zero goals in three matches suggests.
Everton's underlying defensive numbers also leave room for Spurs to finally break out. If Tottenham score early, Everton may have to leave their compact shape and chase the game, creating the type of space De Zerbi's attackers have rarely seen so far.
There is also recent evidence that Spurs are capable of handling this opponent. Tottenham won both league meetings last season, including a 3-0 victory away and a 1-0 win in north London.
That is the scenario a 77¢ buyer has to respect. This is not a bet that Tottenham cannot win; it is a bet that a convincing Tottenham win is still less likely than the market's alternative outcomes combined.
The first Tottenham goal may decide how comfortable this position feels.
If Spurs score early and Everton are forced forward, the game could finally produce the attacking spaces Tottenham have been missing. That is the clearest route to a 2-0 or 3-1 result that beats the spread.
But based on what Tottenham have produced so far, I do not want to pay 47¢ simply for them to win. Polymarket's moneyline is already almost perfectly aligned with Opta's projection.
Everton +1.5 gives us a broader position built around Tottenham's biggest current weakness. Spurs can improve, score their first league goal and even collect three points without necessarily defeating this trade.
Prediction: Tottenham 1-1 Everton
Best Trade: Everton +1.5 at 77¢ on Polymarket
