Aston Villa vs Manchester City Player Props: Foden & Haaland Headline Value Picks

Cherki overperforming xG

FanDuel has Cherki at -125 to score or assist and Foden at +120. However, Cherki's four league goals came from just 1.6 xG. Foden has one goal from 1.8 xG plus two assists from 1.4 xA, and per 90 he's at 0.54 xG and 0.43 xA, well clear of Cherki's 0.37 and 0.39.

Foden in form

Foden is heating up. He scored a goal and registered 0.54 xA in 76 minutes against Ipswich, then bagged a midweek hat-trick against AEK. Villa have conceded 13.06 xGA in seven league games and are short of a fit left-back, with Foden likely to start from the City right.

The edge and the risk

Over 75 minutes, his rates project to about 0.8 combined xG and xA, or a 55% chance he scores or assists. +120 implies 45.5%. However, there is a risk that Maresca rotates Foden after a heavy midweek schedule.

Haaland's volume unmatched

The volume case is easy. Haaland leads the Premier League in shots (27) and shots on target (13), and he's second in both big chances (12) and touches in the opposition box (40). He has 6.43 xG across 620 minutes, or 0.96 per 90.

Haaland highly efficient from limited chances away from home

Away from the Etihad, he's scored four goals from just 1.4 xG in three games. City's whole attack has been thinner on the road, with eight away goals from 4.5 xG. His finishing's been hot, and road chance volume has been modest.

Norwegian is fresh and fit to start

Haaland was rested in midweek, and has shaken off a knock he picked up against Ipswich. The league's most prolific scorer will be fit and fresh to face a middle-of-the-pack Villa defence.

Manzambi hitting form

Manzambi has scored or assisted in all three of his Premier League starts, including the headed winner at Newcastle last weekend. City aren't watertight either: 9.31 xGA through seven league games.

Small sample size limits confidence

Manzambi has only played 257 minutes across 3 games so far this season, so I've cut his rate to about 0.35 xG per 90 before pricing it. Over 75 minutes, that's roughly a 25% chance he scores. +420 implies 19.2%.

Fitness risk

The Swiss International missed the Viking game with a calf problem, and Emery said in his oress conference he didn't know yet whether Manzambi would be ready. Check the teamsheet before making a trade.