Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla – 03/07/20 – La Liga Odds, Preview & Prediction
Updated October 26, 2026
Updated October 26, 2026
Historical betting preview, updated with the final score and betting results.
Atletico Madrid hosted Sevilla on Saturday, March 7, 2020, in a crucial La Liga clash between two teams fighting for Champions League qualification. Sevilla entered the weekend in third place, with Atletico just two points behind in fifth.
The stakes were considerable. A home victory would have moved Diego Simeone's side ahead of Sevilla, while an away win could have given Julen Lopetegui's team valuable breathing room in a tightly contested race for the top four.
Atletico entered as the -115 moneyline favorite, and the original ATS.io prediction backed the home side to take all three points.
Final result: Atletico Madrid 2–2 Sevilla. All four goals came during a dramatic first half, with Sevilla recovering from a 2–1 deficit to earn a draw at the Wanda Metropolitano.
This updated article preserves the original odds, matchup analysis, and betting pick while examining how the contest unfolded and what the result meant for both clubs.
For current soccer predictions and betting analysis, visit ATS.io's soccer section.
Match details | Information |
|---|---|
Competition | La Liga 2019–20 |
Matchweek | 27 |
Date | Saturday, March 7, 2020 |
Stadium | Wanda Metropolitano, Madrid |
Home team | Atletico Madrid |
Away team | Sevilla |
Final score | 2–2 |
Halftime score | 2–2 |
Atletico manager | Diego Simeone |
Sevilla manager | Julen Lopetegui |
Original ATS.io pick | Atletico Madrid -115 |
Betting result | Loss |
The match was far more entertaining than the original preview anticipated.
Sevilla opened the scoring through Luuk de Jong, but Atletico responded with two goals in four minutes from Alvaro Morata and Joao Felix.
Lucas Ocampos equalized from the penalty spot before halftime, and neither team managed to find a winner in the second half.
The result extended both clubs' unbeaten runs but prevented either side from securing a potentially decisive advantage in the Champions League qualification race.
The original ATS.io preview listed the following FanDuel Sportsbook moneyline odds:
Match outcome | Historical odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
Atletico Madrid win | -115 | 53.5% |
Draw | +220 | 31.3% |
Sevilla win | +380 | 20.8% |
These are historical pre-match odds quoted in the original article. They are no longer available for betting. Implied probabilities include the sportsbook's margin.
Atletico Madrid were modest favorites, reflecting their home-field advantage and reputation for defensive organization under Simeone.
Sevilla's +380 price offered a substantial potential return for an away victory, while the draw at +220 was a realistic alternative given the teams' recent head-to-head history.
At -115, a $115 wager on Atletico would have generated $100 in profit if they won.
The implied probability of 53.5% indicated that the market viewed a home victory as the most likely individual outcome.
However, the draw carried an implied probability above 31%, making it an important factor in evaluating the moneyline.
That mattered because Atletico and Sevilla had played three consecutive 1–1 draws before this meeting.
The historical results suggested another close contest was possible, even with Atletico favored at home.
Atletico Madrid entered Matchweek 27 in fifth place, two points behind Sevilla.
Their position reflected a difficult domestic campaign by the standards established under Simeone.
Although Atletico remained one of Spain's most organized defensive teams, inconsistent attacking production had cost them valuable points.
They had drawn too many matches against opponents they were expected to beat, leaving them outside the Champions League qualification places.
Atletico entered the Sevilla game unbeaten in five matches across competitions.
Their previous league fixture had ended in a disappointing 1–1 draw away to Espanyol.
Atletico fell behind through an own goal in the first half before Saul Niguez equalized shortly after the interval.
The result extended their unbeaten sequence but represented another missed opportunity to improve their league position.
Atletico had been much stronger at home.
Their La Liga home record stood at:
That made them one of the strongest home teams in the division.
The Wanda Metropolitano remained a difficult venue for visiting opponents, particularly when Atletico could control the tempo and protect an early lead.
Simeone's teams were built around defensive discipline.
Atletico regularly defended in a compact shape, limiting space between their midfield and defensive lines.
Jan Oblak provided outstanding goalkeeping behind an experienced back line.
Stefan Savic, Felipe, and Kieran Trippier were among the defenders responsible for maintaining Atletico's structure.
In midfield, Koke and Saul provided work rate, positioning, and support in possession.
The system made Atletico difficult to break down, but it also placed pressure on their attacking players to capitalize on limited opportunities.
Against Sevilla, the ability to convert chances would be particularly important.
Joao Felix was one of the most intriguing players in Atletico's squad.
The young Portuguese forward had arrived from Benfica in 2019 and was still adapting to Simeone's demanding system.
His creativity and movement offered a different attacking dimension.
Alvaro Morata provided a more traditional center-forward presence, using his movement and aerial ability to create scoring opportunities.
Angel Correa also contributed energy and direct attacking play.
Atletico needed those players to provide greater consistency if they were going to secure Champions League qualification.
Atletico also faced a significant European fixture.
They were preparing for the second leg of their Champions League Round of 16 tie against Liverpool on March 11.
Atletico held a 1–0 advantage after winning the first leg in Madrid.
The upcoming trip to Anfield created an additional challenge for Simeone.
He needed to balance the importance of the Sevilla match with preparation for one of the club's biggest European fixtures of the season.
That scheduling pressure was a legitimate consideration in the original betting analysis.
Sevilla entered the match in third place, holding a narrow advantage over several clubs competing for Champions League qualification.
Julen Lopetegui had built a team capable of controlling possession, creating opportunities from wide areas, and competing effectively away from home.
The visitors had been particularly impressive on the road.
Before facing Atletico, Sevilla had collected 23 points away from home in La Liga.
Their road record was:
That made Sevilla the second-best away team in the division at the time.
Their ability to secure results outside the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan was a major reason they occupied third place.
However, Atletico represented a more difficult test than many of their previous opponents.
Sevilla entered the contest following a remarkable 3–2 victory over Osasuna.
They had led 2–0 at halftime and appeared to be in control.
Osasuna were reduced to ten men early in the second half, but Sevilla unexpectedly conceded twice.
With the match heading toward a draw, Youssef En-Nesyri scored in stoppage time to secure all three points.
The late winner extended Sevilla's unbeaten run to five matches.
It also demonstrated the team's ability to find a result under pressure, although conceding twice against ten men raised questions about defensive concentration.
Ever Banega was central to Sevilla's midfield.
His passing range and ability to control possession helped dictate the team's attacking rhythm.
Lucas Ocampos provided energy, direct running, and an important goal threat from wide positions.
Jesus Navas remained a key contributor at right-back, offering attacking width and experience.
Luuk de Jong gave Sevilla a physical presence in the penalty area, while En-Nesyri provided an additional attacking option.
At the back, Jules Kounde and Diego Carlos formed an increasingly important central defensive partnership.
The combination of technical quality, defensive strength, and attacking options made Sevilla a dangerous opponent.
Sevilla were also preparing for European competition.
Their upcoming Europa League Round of 16 opponent was Roma.
The original preview highlighted the additional demands of competing domestically and in Europe.
Sevilla had an opportunity to strengthen their position in La Liga before turning their attention to continental competition.
The recent meetings between these clubs suggested a competitive contest.
The original ATS.io article noted that their previous three encounters had all ended 1–1.
Across the preceding ten meetings:
Head-to-head result | Matches |
|---|---|
Atletico Madrid wins | 3 |
Sevilla wins | 3 |
Draws | 4 |
The record was evenly balanced.
Neither club had consistently dominated the matchup.
Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
November 2, 2019 | Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid | 1–1 |
May 12, 2019 | Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla | 1–1 |
January 6, 2019 | Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid | 1–1 |
Those results reinforced the possibility of another draw.
Both teams were capable of defending effectively, and neither had consistently established an advantage in recent meetings.
However, the final result on March 7 would be considerably higher scoring than those earlier encounters.
Original prediction: Atletico Madrid to win (-115).
The original article favored Atletico's home advantage and expected Simeone's side to secure a narrow victory.
The reasoning centered on three main factors.
First, Atletico had been strong at the Wanda Metropolitano, winning eight of their first 13 home league matches.
Second, a victory was particularly important because Atletico entered the weekend outside the Champions League qualification places.
Third, Simeone's defensive organization offered a potential advantage in a matchup expected to produce few scoring opportunities.
The original preview anticipated a slow, low-scoring contest.
It concluded that Atletico would find a way to win at home.
The home-field argument was reasonable.
Atletico had a strong record in Madrid, and Sevilla were direct competitors for Champions League qualification.
However, the original analysis underestimated Sevilla's attacking threat.
It also placed relatively little weight on the teams' three consecutive draws.
The +220 draw price ultimately proved more rewarding than the favored Atletico moneyline.
Atletico Madrid -115: Lost.
The match finished 2–2, meaning Atletico failed to win.
A standard three-way moneyline wager on Atletico would have lost its full stake.
The game began with both teams attempting to establish control in midfield.
Atletico sought to impose their usual defensive structure, while Sevilla tried to build attacks through possession and movement in wide areas.
The opening half quickly developed into an unexpectedly entertaining contest.
Four goals were scored before the interval.
Sevilla struck first through Luuk de Jong.
Joan Jordan provided the assist, and the Dutch striker finished to put the visitors ahead.
The goal gave Sevilla an early advantage and placed additional pressure on Atletico.
For a team known for defensive stability, conceding first at home was a significant setback.
Atletico needed a response to avoid losing ground in the top-four race.
Atletico were awarded a penalty after a VAR review.
Alvaro Morata converted from the spot to make the score 1–1.
The equalizer changed the momentum of the contest.
Atletico became more aggressive in attack and quickly capitalized on their improved position.
Just four minutes later, Joao Felix scored to complete Atletico's turnaround.
Koke supplied the assist.
The goal gave Atletico a 2–1 advantage and put them in position to claim an important home victory.
At that stage, the original ATS.io moneyline selection was on course to win.
However, Sevilla responded before halftime.
Sevilla were awarded a penalty after another VAR intervention.
Lucas Ocampos stepped forward and converted to level the score.
The goal restored parity and ensured the teams entered halftime tied at 2–2.
It also meant that both clubs had scored from the penalty spot during a dramatic opening 45 minutes.
The second half was more controlled.
Atletico created opportunities and attempted to regain the lead.
Yannick Carrasco entered the match and added attacking energy.
Diego Costa was also introduced as Simeone searched for a decisive goal.
Sevilla defended with greater discipline and looked to protect the point they had recovered.
Despite Atletico's pressure, neither side found another goal.
The match ended 2–2.
Minute | Player | Team | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
19' | Luuk de Jong | Sevilla | 0–1 |
32' | Alvaro Morata (penalty) | Atletico Madrid | 1–1 |
36' | Joao Felix | Atletico Madrid | 2–1 |
43' | Lucas Ocampos (penalty) | Sevilla | 2–2 |
All four goals came in the first half.
The second period remained scoreless despite both sides creating opportunities.
Statistic | Atletico Madrid | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
Final score | 2 | 2 |
Possession | 45% | 55% |
Total shots | 21 | 12 |
Shots on target | 3 | 4 |
Corner kicks | 8 | 4 |
Yellow cards (players) | 2 | 4 |
Statistics reflect historical match records; possession figures are rounded.
The numbers reveal an interesting contrast.
Atletico attempted considerably more shots, but Sevilla registered more efforts on target.
Atletico's 21 shots produced only three on-target attempts.
That lack of precision helped explain why the home side failed to convert its second-half pressure into a winning goal.
Sevilla enjoyed the greater share of possession and remained dangerous when they attacked.
The visitors also demonstrated the resilience needed to recover after falling behind.
Manager: Diego Simeone
Jan Oblak; Kieran Trippier, Stefan Savic, Felipe, Mario Hermoso; Angel Correa, Marcos Llorente, Saul Niguez, Koke; Joao Felix, Alvaro Morata.
Substitutions:
Manager: Julen Lopetegui
Tomas Vaclik; Jesus Navas, Jules Kounde, Diego Carlos, Sergio Reguilon; Nemanja Gudelj, Joan Jordan, Ever Banega; Suso, Lucas Ocampos, Luuk de Jong.
Substitutions:
Both managers made attacking and tactical adjustments during the second half.
However, the changes were insufficient to break the deadlock.
The 2–2 draw produced several clear outcomes across common soccer betting markets.
Betting market | Outcome |
|---|---|
Atletico Madrid moneyline (-115) | Lost |
Sevilla moneyline (+380) | Lost |
Draw (+220) | Won |
Both teams to score — Yes | Won |
Over 2.5 total goals | Won |
Over 3.5 total goals | Won |
Under 4.5 total goals | Won |
Atletico Madrid to score | Yes |
Sevilla to score | Yes |
Halftime draw | Won |
Only the three-way moneyline prices were supplied in the original article. Other market outcomes are based on the final score, without claiming specific historical prices.
A hypothetical $100 wager on the draw at +220 would have produced:
Bet detail | Amount |
|---|---|
Stake | $100 |
Profit | $220 |
Total payout | $320 |
The draw offered a higher payout than Atletico's -115 moneyline.
It also aligned with the recent head-to-head pattern, although the 2–2 scoreline was more entertaining than the previous 1–1 results.
Both clubs scored twice.
That meant a wager on both teams to score would have won.
The original preview anticipated a relatively uneventful game, but both sides demonstrated sufficient attacking quality to create and convert opportunities.
The match produced four total goals.
Over 2.5 goals won, while under 2.5 goals lost.
All four goals were scored before halftime, making the match an unusual example of a high-scoring opening period followed by a scoreless second half.
The halftime score was 2–2.
That meant first-half over 2.5 goals and first-half over 3.5 goals would both have won.
A halftime draw wager would also have won.
However, these outcomes should not be confused with documented ATS.io selections.
The original article recommended Atletico Madrid on the three-way moneyline and did not provide official picks for these additional markets.
The original prediction rested heavily on Atletico's strong home record.
That was a legitimate factor, but the match exposed several weaknesses in the betting case.
Sevilla entered with the second-best away record in La Liga.
Their 7-2-4 record showed they were capable of competing effectively outside their home stadium.
The +380 price may have made them appear like substantial underdogs, but their overall performance level suggested they could trouble Atletico.
The teams had drawn their previous three meetings 1–1.
That pattern indicated how difficult it was for either side to establish a decisive advantage.
Atletico were favorites, but the draw deserved serious consideration.
Atletico attempted 21 shots but managed only three on target.
Their attacking pressure was substantial, particularly during the second half.
However, they lacked the precision needed to secure the victory.
After falling behind 2–1, Sevilla responded before halftime.
Their ability to regain control and secure a point demonstrated the resilience that had helped them climb to third place.
Atletico were preparing for a Champions League match against Liverpool.
Sevilla also had European commitments ahead.
Those circumstances didn't determine the result, but they formed part of the broader context surrounding the match.
The result preserved Sevilla's narrow advantage over Atletico.
Both clubs collected one point, meaning the gap between them remained at two points.
Sevilla stayed ahead in the race for Champions League qualification.
Atletico missed an opportunity to move above their opponents and strengthen their position.
The draw also illustrated how competitive the race for the final Champions League places had become.
Several clubs were separated by only a handful of points.
With the season entering its final months, individual results could have significant consequences.
The March 7 match took place shortly before European soccer was disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
La Liga was suspended later that month and resumed in June.
The interruption created an unusual conclusion to the season, with teams playing their remaining fixtures during the summer.
Atletico recovered to finish third in La Liga.
They ended the campaign with 70 points and secured Champions League qualification.
Their final record was:
The unusually high number of draws remained a defining feature of their season.
Sevilla finished fourth, also with 70 points.
Their final record was:
Atletico finished above Sevilla on the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Both clubs achieved their primary domestic objective by qualifying for the following season's Champions League.
Sevilla also enjoyed success in Europe.
They won the 2019–20 UEFA Europa League, defeating Inter Milan 3–2 in the final on August 21, 2020.
The victory gave Sevilla their sixth UEFA Cup/Europa League title.
It was a significant achievement for Lopetegui in his first season as Sevilla manager.
Atletico eliminated defending champions Liverpool in March 2020.
After winning the first leg 1–0, they secured a dramatic 3–2 extra-time victory at Anfield to advance 4–2 on aggregate.
Their European campaign eventually ended with a 2–1 defeat to RB Leipzig in the quarterfinals.
The victory over Liverpool remains one of the standout results of Atletico's 2019–20 season.
This matchup provides several useful examples for evaluating soccer betting markets.
Atletico had been one of La Liga's strongest home teams.
However, Sevilla's away form made the contest more competitive than the headline odds might suggest.
Bettors should compare a team's home record with the opponent's away performance rather than evaluating either statistic in isolation.
Three consecutive 1–1 draws were an important part of the original preview.
The fourth consecutive draw reinforced the pattern.
However, head-to-head history alone cannot reliably predict future outcomes.
Team selection, current form, injuries, tactical changes, and scheduling all influence results.
Atletico attempted 21 shots but placed only three on target.
Sevilla produced fewer attempts but registered four on target.
That distinction illustrates why total shots should not be treated as a direct measure of attacking effectiveness.
Three-way soccer moneylines offer three possible outcomes.
The draw is sometimes overlooked when one team has a strong home record.
In this case, the +220 draw was the winning selection.
The original preview expected a competitive game but backed Atletico to win.
The teams were indeed closely matched, but neither secured three points.
That difference illustrates the importance of translating a general matchup assessment into the correct betting market.
Neither team won. The match ended in a 2–2 draw.
Atletico Madrid 2, Sevilla 2.
Alvaro Morata scored a penalty in the 32nd minute, and Joao Felix scored in the 36th minute.
Luuk de Jong opened the scoring in the 19th minute, and Lucas Ocampos converted a penalty in the 43rd minute.
The original ATS.io preview listed Atletico Madrid at -115, Sevilla at +380, and the draw at +220.
Vincent Senick selected Atletico Madrid to win at -115.
No. The 2–2 draw meant the Atletico moneyline selection lost.
The draw at +220.
Yes. Both Atletico Madrid and Sevilla scored twice.
Yes. The match produced four goals.
All four goals came before halftime.
At the Wanda Metropolitano in Madrid, Spain.
Diego Simeone.
Julen Lopetegui.
Atletico finished third with 70 points.
Sevilla finished fourth, also with 70 points.
Yes. Sevilla won the 2019–20 UEFA Europa League, defeating Inter Milan 3–2 in the final.
Atletico Madrid entered the March 7, 2020 matchup as the betting favorite, supported by a strong home record and the importance of securing Champions League qualification.
Sevilla, however, arrived with one of La Liga's best away records and enough attacking quality to challenge Simeone's defense.
The match delivered four first-half goals and a competitive second half.
Atletico recovered from an early deficit to lead 2–1, but Ocampos' penalty ensured Sevilla earned a point.
The original Atletico Madrid -115 selection lost, while the draw at +220 was the winning three-way moneyline outcome.
→ Our Take: Atletico's home advantage made them a reasonable favorite, but Sevilla's road record and the teams' recent history of draws deserved greater weight. The 2–2 result reinforced how closely matched these clubs were during the 2019–20 season. Atletico created enough chances to win, yet Sevilla's resilience and attacking efficiency prevented the home side from taking all three points. For bettors, the draw was the more rewarding outcome at +220.
Updated October 26, 2026
