Ottawa Senators vs Calgary Flames Prediction 3/5/26
Updated March 5, 2026
Updated March 5, 2026
The Ottawa Senators head west to the Scotiabank Saddledome to face a rebuilding Calgary Flames squad on Thursday night. Ottawa enters this matchup as one of the league’s hottest teams, currently on a 6-1-2 run as they claw their way back into the Eastern Conference wild-card conversation. Calgary, conversely, has fully embraced a youth movement, evidenced by their blockbuster trade of top defenseman MacKenzie Weegar to Utah just 24 hours ago. With the trade deadline looming tomorrow, the atmosphere in Calgary is one of transition, while the Senators arrive with singular focus: securing two points against a depleted opponent. Continue reading to get my Senators vs Flames prediction. Visit our NHL page to see all of today’s top picks and predictions.
Pick: Ottawa Senators Moneyline (-135) ATS PRO
Confidence: ★★★★☆
The Flames' defense is in a state of flux following the departure of MacKenzie Weegar. While Olli Maatta joins the lineup tonight, losing their primary minutes-eater creates a massive vacuum that Ottawa’s elite top six—led by Stützle and the recently acquired Dylan Cozens—is primed to exploit. Calgary’s younger defenders will be under immense pressure from the opening whistle.
Unlike Calgary, who is looking toward the 2026 Draft, the Senators are playing meaningful March hockey. Since the Olympic break, Ottawa has been one of the most disciplined transition teams in the league. Their power play has converted at a 28% clip over the last five games, a nightmare scenario for a Flames team that is currently struggling with defensive zone coverage and communication.
Score Projection: Ottawa 5 – Calgary 2 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Ottawa 62.1%, Calgary 37.9% ATS PRO
The timing of this matchup heavily favors Ottawa. Between Calgary’s massive injury list and the emotional tax of trading away their best defenseman just before the deadline, the Flames are at their most vulnerable. The Senators are firing on all cylinders, and their offensive depth should overwhelm a Calgary roster that is currently more focused on tomorrow’s trade calls than tonight’s scoreboard.
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