Last week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers clinched the NFC South with a win over the Carolina Panthers. This week, they have nothing to play for, as they are locked into the four seed in the NFC. As a result, they are underdogs against an Atlanta Falcons team that they beat earlier this season. In our NFL picks for this Sunday, we break down a Buccaneers vs Falcons game that does not carry any standings significance, but could be interesting nonetheless in seeing who does and does not play.
Buccaneers vs Falcons Betting Pick
| ℹ️ The Pick: | Buccaneers +6.5 |
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This game will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday, January 8, 2023.
Why Bet the Buccaneers:
✅ This line was created under the assumption that the Buccaneers will be sitting their players in Week 18. But Tom Brady has come out and protested that idea and the Bucs could come out at full strength.
✅ Even if the Bucs do sit some players, there is no indication that the Falcons will beat them. They had lost four straight games before sneaking by a Cardinals team using their third string quarterback last week, and could lose as a favorite here.
✅ Atlanta has a vested interest as an organization in losing this game to the Buccaneers. A win here could take them out of the top-eight in the NFL Draft later this year, depending on what happens with the other teams around them in the standings.
NFL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons
Team Stats
Passing
Offense/Defense
| TB | Passing | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 360 | CMP | 354 |
| 507 | ATT | 507 |
| 71.0 | CMP% | 69.8 |
| 246.1 | YDS/GM | 223.4 |
| 7.7 | Y/A | 6.9 |
| 6.8 | NY/A | 6.3 |
| 15 | INT | 11 |
| 37 | SK | 26 |
Defense/Offense
| TB | Passing | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 377 | CMP | 324 |
| 560 | ATT | 486 |
| 67.3 | CMP% | 66.7 |
| 250.3 | YDS/GM | 236.5 |
| 7.2 | Y/A | 7.7 |
| 6.3 | NY/A | 6.9 |
| 7 | INT | 17 |
| 39 | SK | 29 |
Rushing
Offense/Defense
| TB | Rushing | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | G | 15 |
| 412 | ATT | 392 |
| 2155 | YDS | 1680 |
| 143.7 | Y/G | 112.0 |
| 5.2 | Y/A | 4.3 |
| 15 | TD | 7 |
| 1 | TD/G | 0.5 |
Defense/Offense
| TB | Rushing | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | G | 15 |
| 357 | ATT | 434 |
| 1560 | YDS | 1866 |
| 104.0 | Y/G | 124.4 |
| 4.4 | Y/A | 4.3 |
| 13 | TD | 13 |
| 0.9 | TD/G | 0.9 |
Special Teams
Offense/Defense
| TB | Special Teams | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Punts/Ret | 20 |
| 158 | Punt/Yds | 264 |
| 8.8 | Punt/Y/R | 13.2 |
| 27 | Kick Off/Ret | 26 |
| 713 | Kick Off/Yds | 709 |
| 26.4 | Kick Off/Y/rt | 27.3 |
Defense/Offense
| TB | Special Teams | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | Punts/Ret | 18 |
| 263 | Punt/Yds | 168 |
| 13.2 | Punt/Y/R | 9.3 |
| 22 | Kick Off/Ret | 24 |
| 607 | Kick Off/Yds | 637 |
| 27.6 | Kick Off/Y/rt | 26.5 |
Scoring
Offense/Defense
| TB | Scoring | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | G | 15 |
| 15 | RshTD | 7 |
| 34 | RecTD | 28 |
| 26 | FGM | 29 |
| 28 | FGA | 30 |
| 28.5 | Pts/G | 23.3 |
Defense/Offense
| TB | Scoring | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | G | 15 |
| 13 | RshTD | 13 |
| 24 | RecTD | 18 |
| 29 | FGM | 27 |
| 39 | FGA | 37 |
| 23.5 | Pts/G | 21.8 |
Team Advanced Defense
| TB | Defense | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 32.9% | Bltz% | 21.2% |
| 7.0% | Hrry% | 9.0% |
| 10.9% | QB Hit% | 8.1% |
| 22.7% | QB Prss% | 20.8% |
Injuries
| Name | Position | Injury | Status | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Stinnie | G | Knee (acl) (mcl) | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Cam Gill | OLB | Foot | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Carl Nassib | OLB | Pectoral | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Carlton Davis III | CB | Shoulder | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Donovan Smith | OT | Foot | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Genard Avery | OLB | Abdomen | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Josh Wells | OT | Knee | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Julio Jones | WR | Knee/illness | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Logan Ryan | S | Knee | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Mike Edwards | S | Hamstring/hip | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Shaquil Barrett | OLB | Achilles | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Vita Vea | DL | Calf | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Ryan Jensen | C | Knee | Questionable | 01/08/23 |
| Tristan Wirfs | OT | Ankle | Questionable | 01/06/23 |
| Jamel Dean | CB | Toe | Probable | 01/08/23 |
| Name | Position | Injury | Status | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beau Brinkley | LS | Achilles | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Caleb Huntley | RB | Ankle | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Casey Hayward | CB | Shoulder | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Chuma Edoga | OT | Knee | Out | 01/08/23 |
| David Anenih | OLB | Gaemday Inactive | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Derrick Tangelo | DL | Undisclosed | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Elijah Wilkinson | OT | Calf | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Emeka Emezie | WR | Undisclosed | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Feleipe Franks | TE | Concussion | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Jalen Dalton | DT | Gaemday Inactive | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Jalen Mayfield | OL | Back | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Jovante Moffatt | S | Calf | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | Knee (mcl) | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Marcus Mariota | QB | Knee | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Micah Abernathy | FS | Gaemday Inactive | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Rashad Fenton | CB | Gaemday Inactive | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Ta'Quon Graham | DL | Knee | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Tyler Vrabel | OL | Undisclosed | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Vincent Taylor | DT | Achilles | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Jared Bernhardt | WR | Groin | Questionable | 01/08/23 |
| John FitzPatrick | TE | Undisclosed | Questionable | 01/08/23 |
| Avery Williams | RB | Foot | Probable | 01/06/23 |
Betting Trends
| TB | Betting Trends | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 2-1-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 1-2-0 |
| 1-2-0 | ATS W/L/P | 1-2-0 |
| 24 | Avg Score | 15.67 |
| 24.67 | Avg Opp Score | 19 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 1-2-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 2-1-0 |
| 0-3-0 | ATS W/L/P | 1-2-0 |
| 14.33 | Avg Score | 21 |
| 24.67 | Avg Opp Score | 20.67 |
| TB | Betting Trends | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 3-2-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 1-4-0 |
| 1-4-0 | ATS W/L/P | 1-4-0 |
| 19.2 | Avg Score | 15.2 |
| 25 | Avg Opp Score | 19 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 1-4-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 3-2-0 |
| 0-5-0 | ATS W/L/P | 1-4-0 |
| 12.8 | Avg Score | 23.4 |
| 23 | Avg Opp Score | 23.2 |
| TB | Betting Trends | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 5-5-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 3-7-0 |
| 2-7-1 | ATS W/L/P | 2-8-0 |
| 17.5 | Avg Score | 18.9 |
| 22.5 | Avg Opp Score | 23.3 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 6-4-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 6-4-0 |
| 4-6-0 | ATS W/L/P | 4-6-0 |
| 19.3 | Avg Score | 23.4 |
| 17.5 | Avg Opp Score | 22.3 |
Head to Head
Teams Last 10
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers fell behind against the Carolina Panthers last week, but they pulled things together and came away with a win in that contest to clinch the NFC South. Tampa Bay is the only NFC South team with a .500 record this year, and they could move to 9-8 with a win in this contest. But the question for the Buccaneers is who will play and who will not play in this regular season finale.
No matter what happens in Atlanta on Sunday, the Buccaneers are locked into the fourth seed in the NFC in the playoffs. That will mean a home game, probably against the Dallas Cowboys, during Wild Card Weekend. As a result, we could see some players rest this week, though the Buccaneers have not quite played well enough to where that is a guarantee.
Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons snapped a four-game losing streak last week when they beat the Arizona Cardinals. The Falcons have been eliminated from playoff contention, but will look to close their season out on a high note against the Buccaneers.
There will, of course, be questions about who plays for the Falcons coming into this game as well. While they do not have postseason considerations to think about, the Falcons also have the draft to worry about. A win here, while gratifying in the short term, could cost the team crucial draft positioning.
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