Zach Ertz projections, stats and prop bet odds for New York Giants at Washington Commanders on Sep 15, 2024
Zach Ertz Player Prop Bet: Receptions
Receptions Prop Bet Odds:
- Receptions 2.5 over: -165
- Receptions 2.5 under: 135
Trends Favoring The Over Receptions Prop Bet
In this week's contest, Zach Ertz is forecasted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 82nd percentile among tight ends with 4.5 targets.
Zach Ertz has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 19.2% since the start of last season, which places him in the 95th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
With an excellent 3.7 adjusted receptions per game (83rd percentile) since the start of last season, Zach Ertz stands among the best pass-catching tight ends in the league.
Trends Favoring The Under Receptions Prop Bet
The Commanders are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Commanders to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 50.4% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to play at the 11th-worst pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.95 seconds per play accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have played in the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.
The New York Giants pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (69.2%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (69.2%).
Projection For Today's Zach Ertz Receptions Prop Bet
Zach Ertz is projected to have 2.6 Receptions in todays game.
Zach Ertz Player Prop Bet: Receiving Yards
Receiving Yards Prop Bet Odds:
- Receiving Yards 19.5 over: -170
- Receiving Yards 19.5 under: 135
Trends Favoring The Over Receiving Yards Prop Bet
In this week's contest, Zach Ertz is forecasted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 82nd percentile among tight ends with 4.5 targets.
Zach Ertz has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 19.2% since the start of last season, which places him in the 95th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
In regards to air yards, Zach Ertz ranks in the lofty 81st percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accruing a superb 40.0 per game.
Since the start of last season, the poor Giants defense has allowed the 4th-most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a whopping 5.88 YAC.
Trends Favoring The Under Receiving Yards Prop Bet
The Commanders are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Commanders to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 50.4% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to play at the 11th-worst pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.95 seconds per play accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
Zach Ertz has been one of the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among TEs, catching just 63.6% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 8th percentile.
The New York Giants pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (69.2%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (69.2%).
Projection For Today's Zach Ertz Receiving Yards Prop Bet
Zach Ertz is projected to have 21 Receiving Yards in todays game.
