The New Orleans Saints head into Week 14 as sizable underdogs when they travel to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. With a 2–10 record, the Saints are officially eliminated from playoff contention. The Bucs are sitting at 7–5 and fighting for positioning in the NFC South. They have a clear incentive to take care of business at home here, but will they? Continue reading for my Saints vs Buccaneers prediction.
Our Saints vs Buccaneers Pick
Pick: Buccaneers –8.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Date & Time: Sunday, December 7, 2025, 1:00 PM EST
- Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
- Broadcast: CBS
Saints vs Buccaneers Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| TB –8.5 | TB –425 / NO +330 | O/U 41.5 |
Key Storylines
- The Saints are coming off a 21–17 loss to the Miami Dolphins, bringing their season record to 2–10. Their offense has struggled mightily all season, averaging just over 15 points per game. Their scoring droughts have become a recurring theme with rookie quarterback Tyler Shough under center.
- The Buccaneers beat the Arizona Cardinals last week to improve to 7–5, holding onto a slim lead atop the NFC South. Their motivation is strong as they try to solidify a postseason berth over the final weeks of the regular season.
- Injury news is trending positive for Tampa Bay. Their veteran wide receiver Mike Evans has been cleared to return from injured reserve, and young receiver Jalen McMillan is also back in practice. Their return, even if full participation isn’t guaranteed, adds to a Bucs offense that cause problems for opposing defenses with both the run and pass.
- On the flip side, New Orleans’ offense remains in question. Both Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara are questionable to take part in this game and the Saints could continue to struggle moving the ball without two of their best weapons.
Quarterback Play
Tampa Bay will go with Baker Mayfield at quarterback. He has thrown for 2,600 yards on the season with 19 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions. The potential return of Evans and McMillan could restore some much-needed vertical threat, which should help Mayfield open up the field even more effectively.
For New Orleans, offensive production has largely stalled. Their quarterback rotation has included Spencer Rattler and Tyler Shough, both of whom have struggled to propel the offense consistently. Shough will try to continue getting used to life in the NFL in this game.
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Bucs defeated the Saints 23-3 earlier this season at Caesars Superdome.
- Tampa Bay is 5-7 against the spread this season.
- New Orleans is 4-8 against the spread entering Week 14 play.
- Tampa is 6-6 on over/unders going into this contest.
- The Saints have stayed under the total in 9 of their 12 games.
Saints vs Buccaneers Model Projection
Score Projection: Saints 16 – Buccaneers 26
Win Probability: Saints 18%, Buccaneers 82%
Final Thoughts
The Bucs should have no problem winning this game convincingly at home. Barring a defensive meltdown from Tampa, the Bucs should cover the spread here and maintain their advantage in the NFC South over the idle Carolina Panthers.
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