Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction - 12/7/2025
Updated December 4, 2025
Updated December 4, 2025
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts will play for the AFC South lead on Sunday afternoon. Both clubs arrive at 8‑4 and are locked in a tight race for the top spot in the division. The winner will greatly improve their chances of making the playoffs, while the loser will be in a tight Wild Card race going forward. Here, I have broken down this matchup and made my Colts vs Jaguars prediction below.
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Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
Colts –1.5 | Colts –130, Jaguars +110 | 47.5 points |
Both teams come into this game at 8‑4 and are tied atop the AFC South, with Jacksonville currently holding the tiebreaker. The winner gains sole possession of first place, making this a high-stakes divisional matchup. The Jaguars arrive to this game on a three‑game winning streak. The Colts, meanwhile, have dropped three of their last four games, including a home loss to the Houston Texans in Week 13.
For Jacksonville, the inclusion of receiver Jakobi Meyers has provided a noticeable lift to the passing game. In their recent 25–3 victory over the Tennessee Titans, Trevor Lawrence delivered 229 passing yards and two touchdowns, while Meyers hauled in 6 catches for 90 yards and a score. That was his best performance since joining the Jaguars. Defensively, Jacksonville forced three sacks and smothered the Titans into just 188 total yards and a mere three points.
On the Colts side, the offense remains sharp on paper and they rank among the league’s top offenses in total yards per game. Running back Jonathan Taylor produced 85 rushing yards on 21 carries in the Texans loss, adding 36 yards receiving. But the defense has struggled to contain opponents, especially on the road. To make matters worse, top cornerback Sauce Gardner is dealing with a calf strain and is expected to miss Sunday’s contest.
Daniel Jones leads the Colts offense and has logged 3,041 passing yards this season with 19 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. But he's playing on a broken leg and that could hinder him on the road in this contest.
Trevor Lawrence appears to be in a groove for the Jags. His recent outing against the Titans demonstrated poise and efficiency, and the addition of Meyers gives him a reliable target who is already producing big plays.
Score projection: Colts 20 – Jaguars 24.
Win probabilities: Colts 45%, Jaguars 55%.
I don't trust the Colts to generate enough offense in this game, thanks in large part to their starting quarterback dealing with a fairly serious injury. I'm going to take the Jags to win this contest at home and for Jacksonville to grab sole possession of the AFC South lead.
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