The Denver Broncos and New England Patriots are the last two teams standing in the AFC and they will face off in the AFC Championship Game in Denver on Sunday. Both teams have been the best in the AFC throughout this season and will try to prove that they belong in Super Bowl LX with a win here. Before kickoff from the Mile High City, continue reading to get my Patriots vs Broncos prediction below.
Our Patriots vs Broncos Pick
| Pick: | |
| Confidence: | 4/5 |
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos
- Date & Time: Sunday, January 25, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
- Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
- Broadcast: CBS
Patriots vs Broncos Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Patriots -4.5 | Patriots -225 / Broncos +188 | 40.5 |
Key Storylines
The New England Patriots reached the AFC title game with a pair of home wins in the playoffs. They shut down the Los Angeles Chargers on Wild Card Weekend before surviving a turnover-filled affair against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Playoffs. The Patriots’ defense forced a ton of turnovers against CJ Stroud, including a first-half pick-six. But Drake Maye and the New England offense must take better care of the ball to win this game and reach the Super Bowl.
The Broncos traded the lead back and forth with the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Playoffs, but Bo Nix and the Broncos held their nerve while the Bills unraveled in the extra period. Denver won a 33-30 shootout over the Bills to reach this stage, avenging their playoff loss to the Bills a season ago. Now the question is whether the Broncos can take one more step to win the AFC and make it back to the Super Bowl for the first time since Peyton Manning and Von Miller led them there a decade ago.
Most important in this game will be the quarterback play on both sides. This is the first AFC Championship Game appearance for both Drake Maye and Jarrett Stidham. Stidham is also contending with the fact that he was not ever expecting to be the starter for this game. But he is now called upon to replace Bo Nix, who suffered a season-ending injury in overtime against the Bills, and he will have his hands full against a quality opponent in his return to on-field action.
Betting Trends
- New England is 13-5-1 against the spread going into this contest.
- Denver is 8-9-1 against the spraed going into the AFC Championship Game.
- The over is 12-7 in games involving the Patriots this season.
- Denver has stayed under the total in 10 of their 18 games this year.
Patriots vs Broncos Model Projection
Final Thoughts
