The final week of the NFL regular season will see two AFC East rivalry games take place. One such game will feature the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo will be fighting for the AFC’s top seed in this game, while the Patriots are fighting for their playoff lives. In our NFL betting predictions for Week 18, we look at this Patriots vs Bills matchup from Orchard Park.
Patriots vs Bills Betting Pick
| ℹ️ The Pick: | Bills -7.5 |
| ? Recommended Sportsbook Promo: | Second Chance Bet up to $500 at BetRivers |
| ? Promo Code: | SPORTS |
This game will be played at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, January 8, 2023.
Why Bet the Bills:
✅ Buffalo will be playing to secure the top seed in the AFC playoffs, and will be going for the jugular here at home against the Patriots.
✅ In their last six meetings with the Patriots, the Bills have won by double digits four times and five times overall. The lone exception came last season, where high winds helped the Patriots win with just three pass attempts.
✅ The Bills are 6-1 at home this season, with their lone loss coming against a Vikings team that is 11-0 in one-possession games this year.
NFL
New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills
Team Stats
Passing
Offense/Defense
| NE | Passing | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 285 | CMP | 329 |
| 439 | ATT | 480 |
| 64.9 | CMP% | 68.5 |
| 173.2 | YDS/GM | 227.8 |
| 6.2 | Y/A | 7.1 |
| 5.0 | NY/A | 6.2 |
| 10 | INT | 13 |
| 45 | SK | 32 |
Defense/Offense
| NE | Passing | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 286 | CMP | 278 |
| 432 | ATT | 431 |
| 66.2 | CMP% | 64.5 |
| 216.7 | YDS/GM | 238.8 |
| 7.4 | Y/A | 7.9 |
| 6.6 | NY/A | 7.5 |
| 6 | INT | 5 |
| 27 | SK | 13 |
Rushing
Offense/Defense
| NE | Rushing | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | G | 14 |
| 366 | ATT | 354 |
| 1670 | YDS | 1648 |
| 119.3 | Y/G | 117.7 |
| 4.6 | Y/A | 4.7 |
| 9 | TD | 11 |
| 0.6 | TD/G | 0.8 |
Defense/Offense
| NE | Rushing | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | G | 14 |
| 409 | ATT | 396 |
| 1784 | YDS | 1831 |
| 127.4 | Y/G | 130.8 |
| 4.4 | Y/A | 4.6 |
| 13 | TD | 28 |
| 0.9 | TD/G | 2 |
Special Teams
Offense/Defense
| NE | Special Teams | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | Punts/Ret | 18 |
| 386 | Punt/Yds | 162 |
| 14.8 | Punt/Y/R | 9.0 |
| 19 | Kick Off/Ret | 20 |
| 478 | Kick Off/Yds | 639 |
| 25.2 | Kick Off/Y/rt | 32.0 |
Defense/Offense
| NE | Special Teams | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Punts/Ret | 25 |
| 388 | Punt/Yds | 281 |
| 12.9 | Punt/Y/R | 11.2 |
| 15 | Kick Off/Ret | 16 |
| 383 | Kick Off/Yds | 415 |
| 25.5 | Kick Off/Y/rt | 25.9 |
Scoring
Offense/Defense
| NE | Scoring | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | G | 14 |
| 9 | RshTD | 11 |
| 14 | RecTD | 23 |
| 23 | FGM | 17 |
| 30 | FGA | 22 |
| 17.0 | Pts/G | 22.1 |
Defense/Offense
| NE | Scoring | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | G | 14 |
| 13 | RshTD | 28 |
| 22 | RecTD | 25 |
| 24 | FGM | 21 |
| 29 | FGA | 26 |
| 24.1 | Pts/G | 31.8 |
Team Advanced Defense
| NE | Defense | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 25.2% | Bltz% | 17.7% |
| 6.7% | Hrry% | 7.7% |
| 6.3% | QB Hit% | 9.8% |
| 17.9% | QB Prss% | 22.6% |
Injuries
| Name | Position | Injury | Status | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brenden Schooler | DB | Hip | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Brian Hoyer | QB | Head | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Chasen Hines | OL | Undisclosed | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Cody Davis | SS | Knee | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Isaiah Wynn | OL | Foot | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Jack Jones | DB | Knee | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Jake Bailey | P | Back | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Jalen Mills | CB | Groin | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Joe Cardona | LS | Foot | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Joejuan Williams | CB | Shoulder | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Jonnu Smith | TE | Concussion | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Joshuah Bledsoe | S | Gaemday Inactive | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Kevin Harris | RB | Gaemday Inactive | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Kristian Wilkerson | WR | Concussion | Out | 01/08/23 |
| LaBryan Ray | DL | Undisclosed | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Marcus Cannon | OL | Concussion | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Quinn Nordin | K | Undisclosed | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Ronnie Perkins | LB | Undisclosed | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Sam Roberts | DT | Gaemday Inactive | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Scotty Washington | TE | Undisclosed | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Shaun Wade | CB | Gaemday Inactive | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Ty Montgomery | WR | Ankle | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Andrew Stueber | OL | Hamstring | Questionable | 01/08/23 |
| Davon Godchaux | DT | Illness | Questionable | 01/06/23 |
| DeVante Parker | WR | Concussion | Questionable | 01/06/23 |
| Marcus Jones | DB | Concussion | Questionable | 01/06/23 |
| Myles Bryant | DB | Shoulder | Questionable | 01/06/23 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | Shoulder | Probable | 01/08/23 |
| Jonathan Jones | DB | Chest | Probable | 01/08/23 |
| Name | Position | Injury | Status | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Anderson | OT | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/04/23 |
| Baylon Spector | LB | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Christian Benford | CB | Oblique | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Damar Hamlin | S | Chest | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Dean Marlowe | FS | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/04/23 |
| Ike Boettger | G | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Jake Kumerow | WR | Ankle | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Jamison Crowder | WR | Ankle | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Jared Mayden | S | Gaemday Inactive | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Justin Murray | OT | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Micah Hyde | S | Neck | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Tommy Doyle | OT | Knee (acl) | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Tommy Sweeney | TE | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Von Miller | LB | Knee | Out | 01/08/23 |
| Xavier Rhodes | CB | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/04/23 |
| Dawson Knox | TE | Hip | Questionable | 01/06/23 |
| Jordan Phillips | DT | Shoulder | Questionable | 01/06/23 |
| Jordan Poyer | S | Knee | Questionable | 01/06/23 |
| Josh Allen | QB | Ankle/elbow | Questionable | 01/06/23 |
| Matt Milano | LB | Knee | Questionable | 01/06/23 |
| Taron Johnson | CB | Concussion | Questionable | 01/06/23 |
| Tyrel Dodson | LB | Knee | Questionable | 01/06/23 |
| Cam Lewis | CB | Forearm | Probable | 01/05/23 |
Betting Trends
| NE | Betting Trends | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 1-2-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 3-0-0 |
| 0-3-0 | ATS W/L/P | 1-2-0 |
| 21.67 | Avg Score | 29 |
| 24.33 | Avg Opp Score | 18 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 1-2-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 3-0-0 |
| 1-2-0 | ATS W/L/P | 0-2-1 |
| 25.67 | Avg Score | 27.67 |
| 25.33 | Avg Opp Score | 21.33 |
| NE | Betting Trends | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 2-3-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 5-0-0 |
| 1-4-0 | ATS W/L/P | 2-3-0 |
| 20.4 | Avg Score | 27.8 |
| 22 | Avg Opp Score | 17.8 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 3-2-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 4-1-0 |
| 3-2-0 | ATS W/L/P | 0-4-1 |
| 27.4 | Avg Score | 28 |
| 21.6 | Avg Opp Score | 22.8 |
| NE | Betting Trends | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 5-5-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 8-2-0 |
| 4-6-0 | ATS W/L/P | 3-6-1 |
| 20 | Avg Score | 26.8 |
| 19.9 | Avg Opp Score | 20.2 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 4-6-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 9-1-0 |
| 4-5-1 | ATS W/L/P | 4-4-2 |
| 22.6 | Avg Score | 32.2 |
| 24.9 | Avg Opp Score | 16.6 |
Head to Head
Teams Last 10
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New England Patriots
The New England Patriots remained in playoff contention by beating the Miami Dolphins in Week 17. In a defensive struggle, the Patriots took advantage of the absence of Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa to win 23-21. Here, the Patriots will not have the luxury of playing against backup quarterbacks, as they will likely have to go head to head with Josh Allen and the Bills offense.
For New England, their running game will be the key to the entire game against the Bills. Moving the ball on the ground with Rhamondre Stevenson will help not only get them into scoring territory, but will keep the ball away from Allen. That strategy has not worked for the Patriots in recent games against the Bills, but it could help New England get to the playoffs with a win and a Dolphins loss.
Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills have already clinched the AFC East, with the remaining question being where they will be seeded in the playoffs. Buffalo comes into this game having played on Monday Night Football against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17. And they have a chance to lock up the top seed in the AFC here if things go their way.
Buffalo has the superior talent both offensively and defensively in this matchup. But they are facing a Patriots team that has everything to play for in this matchup. Buffalo will not be able to afford some of the sloppy play that Josh Allen has been vulnerable to at times this season if they want to win here.
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