AFC East rivals will face off in the Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs, as the Miami Dolphins head to Orchard Park to take on the Buffalo Bills. These teams split their season series this year, but the Bills are heavy favorites coming into this matchup on Super Wild Card Weekend. In our NFL picks for the opening weekend of the playoffs, we break down Dolphins vs Bills from Western New York.
Dolphins vs Bills Betting Pick
| ℹ️ The Pick: | Bills -10 |
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This game will be played at Highmark Stadium at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, January 15, 2023.
Why Bet the Bills:
✅ Miami barely got into the postseason, scoring just 11 points in an 11-6 win over the Jets in Week 18. Before that, they had lost five straight games. To say they are not peaking at the right time is an understatement.
✅ The Dolphins could still be without Tua Tagovailoa for this game, as he has suffered multiple concussions this season. There is a very real chance that Skylar Thompson starts this game for Miami, which would be a disaster for them.
✅ Buffalo is going to be riding the emotions of the Damar Hamlin situation this postseason, and that will be especially true at home where Bills fans will rally around their team even more than usual.
NFL
Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills
Team Stats
Passing
Offense/Defense
| MIA | Passing | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 344 | CMP | 329 |
| 490 | ATT | 480 |
| 70.2 | CMP% | 68.5 |
| 222.6 | YDS/GM | 227.8 |
| 6.9 | Y/A | 7.1 |
| 5.9 | NY/A | 6.2 |
| 8 | INT | 13 |
| 35 | SK | 32 |
Defense/Offense
| MIA | Passing | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 292 | CMP | 278 |
| 448 | ATT | 431 |
| 65.2 | CMP% | 64.5 |
| 205 | YDS/GM | 238.8 |
| 6.9 | Y/A | 7.9 |
| 6.0 | NY/A | 7.5 |
| 7 | INT | 5 |
| 28 | SK | 13 |
Rushing
Offense/Defense
| MIA | Rushing | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | G | 14 |
| 368 | ATT | 354 |
| 1420 | YDS | 1648 |
| 101.4 | Y/G | 117.7 |
| 3.9 | Y/A | 4.7 |
| 9 | TD | 11 |
| 0.6 | TD/G | 0.8 |
Defense/Offense
| MIA | Rushing | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | G | 14 |
| 337 | ATT | 396 |
| 1450 | YDS | 1831 |
| 103.6 | Y/G | 130.8 |
| 4.3 | Y/A | 4.6 |
| 12 | TD | 28 |
| 0.9 | TD/G | 2 |
Special Teams
Offense/Defense
| MIA | Special Teams | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | Punts/Ret | 18 |
| 213 | Punt/Yds | 162 |
| 9.7 | Punt/Y/R | 9.0 |
| 21 | Kick Off/Ret | 20 |
| 582 | Kick Off/Yds | 639 |
| 27.7 | Kick Off/Y/rt | 32.0 |
Defense/Offense
| MIA | Special Teams | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Punts/Ret | 25 |
| 202 | Punt/Yds | 281 |
| 11.2 | Punt/Y/R | 11.2 |
| 15 | Kick Off/Ret | 16 |
| 386 | Kick Off/Yds | 415 |
| 25.7 | Kick Off/Y/rt | 25.9 |
Scoring
Offense/Defense
| MIA | Scoring | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | G | 14 |
| 9 | RshTD | 11 |
| 19 | RecTD | 23 |
| 28 | FGM | 17 |
| 32 | FGA | 22 |
| 19.7 | Pts/G | 22.1 |
Defense/Offense
| MIA | Scoring | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | G | 14 |
| 12 | RshTD | 28 |
| 16 | RecTD | 25 |
| 33 | FGM | 21 |
| 38 | FGA | 26 |
| 22.3 | Pts/G | 31.8 |
Team Advanced Defense
| MIA | Defense | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 24.0% | Bltz% | 17.7% |
| 9.1% | Hrry% | 7.7% |
| 7.6% | QB Hit% | 9.8% |
| 21.6% | QB Prss% | 22.6% |
Injuries
| Name | Position | Injury | Status | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Shaheen | TE | Knee | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Austin Jackson | OL | Ankle | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Brandon Shell | OT | Knee | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Byron Jones | CB | Achilles | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Cethan Carter | TE | Concussion | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Emmanuel Ogbah | DE | Tricep | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Eric Fisher | OT | Calf | Out | 01/15/23 |
| John Lovett | FB | Knee | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Justin Zimmer | DT | Undisclosed | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Kendall Lamm | OT | Ankle | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Liam Eichenberg | OL | Hand | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Myles Gaskin | RB | Mcl | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Nik Needham | CB | Achilles | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Noah Igbinoghene | CB | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Porter Gustin | LB | Undisclosed | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Raheem Mostert | RB | Thumb | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Tanner Conner | TE | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Trey Flowers | LB | Foot | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Trill Williams | CB | Knee (acl) | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | Concussion | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Jaelan Phillips | LB | Wrist | Questionable | 01/13/23 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | Ankle | Questionable | 01/13/23 |
| Alec Ingold | FB | Thumb | Probable | 01/15/23 |
| Bradley Chubb | OLB | Ankle | Probable | 01/15/23 |
| Brandon Jones | S | Knee (acl) | Scrambled | 01/15/23 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | WR | Hip | Probable | 01/15/23 |
| Greg Little | OT | Achilles | Probable | 01/12/23 |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. | RB | Illness | Probable | 01/13/23 |
| Kader Kohou | CB | Thumb | Probable | 01/12/23 |
| Skylar Thompson | QB | Ankle | Probable | 01/12/23 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | QB | Knee | Probable | 01/15/23 |
| Terron Armstead | OT | Toe/pectoral/knee/hip | Probable | 01/15/23 |
| Name | Position | Injury | Status | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baylon Spector | LB | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Christian Benford | CB | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Ike Boettger | G | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Jared Mayden | S | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Tommy Sweeney | TE | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Jordan Poyer | S | Knee | Questionable | 01/13/23 |
| Cam Lewis | CB | Forearm | Probable | 01/12/23 |
| Damar Hamlin | S | Chest | Scrambled | 01/15/23 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | WR | Hamstring | Scrambled | 01/15/23 |
| Jake Kumerow | WR | Ankle | Scrambled | 01/15/23 |
| Jamison Crowder | WR | Ankle | Scrambled | 01/15/23 |
| Jordan Phillips | DT | Shoulder | Scrambled | 01/15/23 |
| Josh Allen | QB | Elbow/ankle | Probable | 01/12/23 |
| Micah Hyde | S | Neck | Scrambled | 01/15/23 |
| Tommy Doyle | OT | Knee (acl) | Scrambled | 01/15/23 |
| Von Miller | LB | Knee | Scrambled | 01/15/23 |
Betting Trends
| MIA | Betting Trends | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 1-2-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 3-0-0 |
| 2-1-0 | ATS W/L/P | 2-1-0 |
| 17.33 | Avg Score | 34 |
| 18.33 | Avg Opp Score | 21.67 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 0-3-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 3-0-0 |
| 2-1-0 | ATS W/L/P | 1-2-0 |
| 22.33 | Avg Score | 29 |
| 26 | Avg Opp Score | 21.33 |
| MIA | Betting Trends | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 1-4-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 5-0-0 |
| 3-2-0 | ATS W/L/P | 3-2-0 |
| 19.6 | Avg Score | 29.2 |
| 22 | Avg Opp Score | 17.4 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 1-4-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 4-1-0 |
| 2-3-0 | ATS W/L/P | 1-3-1 |
| 23.8 | Avg Score | 29.6 |
| 28.6 | Avg Opp Score | 24 |
| MIA | Betting Trends | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 5-5-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 8-2-0 |
| 6-4-0 | ATS W/L/P | 3-6-1 |
| 25 | Avg Score | 27.9 |
| 23.4 | Avg Opp Score | 20.5 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 3-7-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 9-1-0 |
| 4-6-0 | ATS W/L/P | 5-4-1 |
| 22.7 | Avg Score | 32.8 |
| 30.9 | Avg Opp Score | 17.4 |
Head to Head
Teams Last 10
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Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins barely qualified for the playoffs in Week 18, beating the New York Jets in a game where neither team scored a touchdown. Skylar Thompson continued to struggle for the Dolphins, but didn’t make any backbreaking mistakes, allowing the Dolphins defense to shut down Joe Flacco en route to a win. Combined with the Patriots’ loss to the Bills, that was enough for Miami to get into the postseason.
If the Dolphins want any chance of going to the second round of the postseason, they will need Tua Tagovailoa to be able to play in this game. Miami has not yet commented on his availability for the playoffs, though Tagovailoa’s multiple head injuries this year would make him questionable at best to play here. If he can’t go, the Dolphins could fail to compete with the Bills the way they have in their two regular season meetings.
Buffalo Bills
In Week 18, the Buffalo Bills locked up the second seed in the AFC, beating the New England Patriots convincingly at home. Nyheim Hines ran two kickoffs back for touchdowns, including the opening kickoff, while the Buffalo offense played at a high level as well. Here, Buffalo is a heavy favorite to move onto the Divisional round, but will need to execute offensively to make that happen.
Buffalo has fallen victim to mistakes against Miami already this season. They turned the ball over and managed the clock poorly during their regular season game at Hard Rock Stadium, which gave Buffalo their first loss of the year. Even as a favorite, Buffalo comes into this game knowing this contest is far from a sure thing.
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