Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Betting Pick & Preview – 11/3/2024

Dolphins vs Bills Betting Odds

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Betting Preview

Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins faceoff against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. The Bills enter the game as a huge favorite (-265) as the home team. Buffalo is currently favored by -6.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 49.5.

Miami's biggest weakness has been their offense, ranking #30 in the league with a mere 234 yards per game. They've failed so much on offense in large part because of their passing attack, which checks in at #1-worst in football with 152 yards per game. And when a defense doesn't have to worry about the pass, they can key in on the run, which has led to just 3.62 yards per carry for the Dolphins -- bottom 10 in the league. It's tough to succeed when you don't have much time to throw, as has been the case for Miami. Their offensive line has ranked just #25 in pass protection. This represents a particular disadvantage for Miami given that the Bills have excelled in stopping the pass this year, allowing just 7.21 yards per target (#7-best in the league). In terms of their defense, the Dolphins have ranked #5 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 184 yards per game through the air against them (#29 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #20 with 4.61 yards per carry. Miami pass defense has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to 21 yards per game (#2-best). Miami has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up 6.87 yards per target (#2-worst).

Buffalo's primary disadvantage has been their pass defense, which has allowed a monstrous 239 yards per game through the air this year, sliding them into the #9 spot among the league's worst. Opposing running backs have given the Bills pass defense the most trouble, posting 50 yards per game against them (#2-worst in football). Buffalo's coverage problems have been exacerbated by their linebackers, who rank just #32 in the league in locking down opposing pass-catchers. This presents a decided disadvantage for Buffalo given that the Dolphins air attack has been so good this year, passing their way to 6.12 yards per target (#26-best in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Bills check in at #18 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 190 yards per game (#18 in football). Their run game has ranked #11 with 4.53 yards per attempt on the ground.

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Prediction

Final Score: Miami Dolphins 23.48 vs Buffalo Bills 26.01

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