Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots Pick For 10/6/2024

Dolphins vs Patriots Betting Odds

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Betting Preview

Sunday the Miami Dolphins (1-3) will battle the New England Patriots (1-3). Oddsmakers think this is a even matchup, as both the Dolphins and the Patriots have an implied win probablity of 50%. The current spread is the Patriots -1.0 with a Game Total of 35.5.

Miami's biggest weakness has been their offense, checking in at #30 in the league with a mere 242 yards per game. A big part of their failure has been the quality (or lack thereof) of their rushing attack, which has been #1-worst in football with just 2.81 yards per carry. This represents a particular disadvantage for Miami given that the Patriots have excelled in stopping the run this year, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry (#1-best in the league). In terms of their defense, the Dolphins have ranked #4 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 142 yards per game through the air against them (#30 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #20 with 4.43 yards per carry. Miami has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 91 yards per game (#3-best). Miami has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up 7.19 yards per target (#2-worst).

New England's primary advantage has been their run defense, which has allowed a scant 3.7 yards per attempt on the ground -- #1-best in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Patriots check in at #27 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 148 yards per game (#31 in football). Their run game has ranked #15 with 4.31 yards per attempt on the ground.

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Prediction

Final Score: Miami Dolphins 21.6 vs New England Patriots 16.85

**NOTE: The above stats and rankings are adjusted for context based on sample size and matchup factors. Note that, by design, these stats will not match up with those you find on stat pages and leaderboards around the industry, however are more predictive for ranking stats and for contextualizing the data. Statistics include data from the beginning of the 2023 NFL season to the present time in the 2024 season to allow a more representative sample size.

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