Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Betting Pick & Preview – 12/28/2024

Chargers vs Patriots Betting Odds

Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Betting Preview

Saturday the Los Angeles Chargers (9-6) will battle the New England Patriots (3-12). Oddsmakers peg the Chargers as the big favorite with an implied win probablity of 67%, leaving the Patriots with a 33% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Chargers -4.0 with a Game Total of 42.5.

New England's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #26 in football with a low 271 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their aerial attack, clocking in at #27 in the league with just 192 yards per game. And if the opposing defense doesn't need to go all out to stop the passing game, they can focus more on stopping the run, which has led New England managing just 3.9 yards per carry -- bottom 10 in the league. Partially to blame is New England's offensive line, which has given the quarterback very little protection, ranking just #32 in the NFL. When it comes to their defense, the Patriots check in at #22 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 229 yards per game against New England this year (#18 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #14 against them with 4.66 yards per ground attempt. This Patriots pass defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, keeping them in check at just 24 yards per game (#2-best in the league). New England's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 8.55 yards per target (#7-worst in the league).

Los Angeles's biggest weakness has been their offense, ranking #28 in the league with a mere 269 yards per game. They've failed so much on offense in large part because of their passing attack, which checks in at #4-worst in football with 190 yards per game. In terms of their defense, the Chargers have ranked #13 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 223 yards per game through the air against them (#22 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #10 with 4.7 yards per carry. Los Angeles has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 38 yards per game (#2-best). Los Angeles has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up 8.51 yards per target (#8-worst).

Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Chargers 22.68 vs New England Patriots 19.02

Be sure to check out all our free NFL picks here.