Jaguars vs Ravens Player Props: 3 Thursday Night Football Predictions
Updated November 4, 2026
Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket and may change based on trading activity leading up to kickoff.
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Updated November 4, 2026
Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket and may change based on trading activity leading up to kickoff.
The Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) travel to Baltimore to face the Ravens (4-4) on Thursday Night Football, November 5. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium, with the game streaming on Amazon Prime Video.
This matchup looked a lot more exciting just a week ago. Jacksonville is coming off a dominant 42-7 win over Indianapolis, while Baltimore suffered a 36-10 loss to Buffalo. And with both their starting and backup quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley, out with injuries, the Ravens now face an even bigger challenge on Thursday night.
It might not be the primetime showdown we were expecting, but there could still be some value in the NFL player prop markets. I've picked out three predictions I like at their current Polymarket prices. Below, I'll explain what makes each one worth considering based on the stats, recent trends, and matchups.
Under in 5 of 7 Games (71.4%)
Lawrence is averaging just 28.3 pass attempts per game this season, with a median of 29. He's attempted 29 or fewer passes in each of those five games, showing that his typical workload is comfortably below this line.
Favorable Game Script
Lawrence has averaged 29.6 pass attempts in Jaguars wins over his last 24 regular-season games, compared to 37.5 in losses. Jacksonville is favored by around nine points, and with Baltimore expected to start undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano at quarterback, the Jaguars could find themselves running the ball more in the second half.
Efficient Passing Offense
Lawrence threw for 210 yards and three touchdowns on just 14 attempts against Indianapolis last week. Baltimore is allowing 7.41 yards per pass attempt, so Lawrence could still have a productive game without needing to throw the ball 35 or 40 times.
Recommended Prediction:
Lawrence 32+ ATT (No)
Current Market Price:
61¢
Model Under Probability:
66.9%
Market-Implied Probability:
61.0%
Model Edge:
+5.9%
Buy Up To:
64¢
Model Confidence:
75/100
Scored in 6 of 8 Games (75%)
Henry has found the end zone in six of Baltimore's eight games this season, accounting for nine of the team's 20 offensive touchdowns (45%).
Dominant Goal-Line Usage
Henry has recorded 40 red-zone carries this season, including 16 inside the 5-yard line. He accounts for roughly 82% of Baltimore's red-zone rushing attempts, making him the clear option when the Ravens get close to the end zone.
Value Despite Difficult Matchup
Jacksonville has allowed just four rushing touchdowns in seven games, and Baltimore could struggle offensively with a rookie quarterback starting. Still, Henry scored against Buffalo last week despite managing just 53 rushing yards on 11 carries. At 43¢, I think there's enough upside to justify the pick.
Recommended Prediction:
Henry Anytime TD (Yes)
Current Market Price:
43¢
Model TD Probability:
48.4%
Market-Implied Probability:
43.0%
Model Edge:
+5.4%
Buy Up To:
47¢
Model Confidence:
73/100
Over in 3 of His Last 4 Games
Cuevas has caught 2, 4, 2, and 1 passes over his last four games, averaging 2.25 receptions. He's also drawn multiple targets in four straight games, including five against Cleveland and three against Cincinnati.
High Target Rate
Cuevas has drawn 13 targets on just 54 routes this season, a 24.1% target rate per route run. Against Cleveland, he caught four of five targets for 44 yards and a touchdown despite running only 14 routes. Baltimore even designed a play that lined him up at guard before releasing for a 29-yard catch.
Andrews’ Declining Snap Share
Mark Andrews' snap share has fallen from around 70% earlier in the season to 57% in each of his last two games. Baltimore has been rotating its tight ends more, which could create additional receiving opportunities for Cuevas.
Recommended Prediction:
Cuevas 2+ REC (Yes)
Current Market Price:
37¢
Model Over Probability:
41.8%
Market-Implied Probability:
37.0%
Model Edge:
+4.8%
Buy Up To:
40¢
Model Confidence:
69/100
With Jacksonville looking like a legitimate AFC contender this season and Baltimore down to its third-string quarterback, it's no surprise the Jaguars are heavy favorites on Polymarket.
Jacksonville is trading at 83¢ to win outright, while the Jaguars -9.5 spread is priced at 52¢. Meanwhile, the game total is relatively low at 40.5 points, with the under trading at 54¢.
Interestingly, our Jaguars vs Ravens prediction model projects a 23-17 Jacksonville win, favoring both the Ravens to cover and the under 40.5.
As for how this could affect our player props, Lawrence shouldn't need to throw nearly as much in the second half if Jacksonville builds a comfortable lead. On the other side, Baltimore could find itself playing from behind and needing to get its pass catchers more involved, potentially creating a few extra opportunities for Josh Cuevas.
Of course, the low total is a concern for Derrick Henry's touchdown chances, especially with so much uncertainty surrounding Baltimore's offense. However, that's also a big reason why we're getting Henry anytime touchdown at such a discount (43¢). The Ravens might not score much, but if they do get into the red zone, Henry is still the player I'd expect them to lean on.
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