Houston Texans vs New England Patriots Prediction & Picks 10/13/2024

Texans vs Patriots Betting Odds

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots Betting Preview

The last time these two teams played each other was Week 5 in 2021. That game resulted in a win for the Patriots with a final score of 25-22. Although the Patriots recorded the win, they failed to cover the -8.0 point spread that game. The Game Total for that game was 39.0 and which the Over hit.

New England's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #27 in football with a low 266 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their aerial attack, clocking in at #31 in the league with just 154 yards per game. Partially to blame is New England's offensive line, which has given the quarterback very little protection, ranking just #28 in the NFL. When it comes to their defense, the Patriots check in at #22 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 247 yards per game against New England this year (#9 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #24 against them with 4.26 yards per ground attempt. A strong argument could be made that their best position group is their cornerbacks, who rank #7 in the league in coverage. New England's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have scorched them for 52 yards per game (#8-worst in the league).

Houston's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #5 in the league while allowing just 285 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #3-least yards per game: 167. The Texans have done the best job shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to a 55% completion rate (#1-lowest). Houston's best position group in coverage has been their cornerbacks, which rank #10 in the league in locking down route-runners. This represents a particular advantage for Houston given that the Patriots have struggled so much with their pass game this year, managing just 5.4 yards per target (#2-worst in the league). In terms of their offense, the Texans have ranked #5 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 276 yards per game (#4 in football). On the ground they've ranked #25 with 3.7 yards per carry.

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots Prediction

Final Score: Houston Texans 23.9 vs New England Patriots 18.18

**NOTE: The above stats and rankings are adjusted for context based on sample size and matchup factors. Note that, by design, these stats will not match up with those you find on stat pages and leaderboards around the industry, however are more predictive for ranking stats and for contextualizing the data. Statistics include data from the beginning of the 2023 NFL season to the present time in the 2024 season to allow a more representative sample size.

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