Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction & Preview - 10/4/2026
Updated October 2, 2026
Updated October 2, 2026
Green Bay heads to Raymond James Stadium on Sunday with both teams already facing an uncomfortable early-season spot. The Packers are 1-2 after a 35-14 home loss to Atlanta, while Tampa Bay is 0-3 after falling 23-16 to Minnesota. Green Bay sits last in the NFC North, 2 games behind unbeaten Minnesota, while Tampa Bay is only 1 game behind the 1-2 trio in the NFC South. The biggest change for this matchup is at quarterback for the Buccaneers, where undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels will make his first NFL start after Baker Mayfield dislocated his right thumb.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“The current total appears to place too much weight on Tampa Bay's quarterback downgrade and not enough on Green Bay's defensive problems, the Packers' pass-heavy offense, and the chance that short fields or red-zone efficiency create enough scoring to clear a low number.”
Green Bay Favored With QB Change
Polymarket currently prices Over 38.5 at 52¢, with Under 38.5 at 50¢. The game-winner market is more decisive, with Green Bay at 63¢ and Tampa Bay at 38¢. Those prices make sense after Mayfield's injury, but they also show how strongly the market has adjusted to Daniels making his first start.
Projections Favor the Over
My projection is closer to a 43-point game, with Green Bay winning 23-20. That leaves a 4.5% edge on Over 38.5. Tampa Bay has scored 20.7 points per game and ranks 30th in red-zone touchdown rate at 30.0%, yet Green Bay has allowed 30.3 points per game, a 50.0% third-down conversion rate, and an 83.3% red-zone touchdown rate. Even a conservative Tampa Bay plan can contribute enough points if Daniels avoids giveaways and uses his mobility to extend drives.
Recommended Position:
Over 38.5
Current Price:
52¢
Model Probability:
56.5%
Market Probability:
52%
Model Edge:
4.5%
Entry Threshold:
54¢
Model Confidence:
76/100
Green Bay cannot afford to drift much farther behind Minnesota in the NFC North. The Packers are 1-2 and have already lost a division game, while the Vikings are 3-0. Tampa Bay is winless, but the NFC South remains compressed, with Carolina, New Orleans, and Atlanta all at 1-2. That keeps this from feeling like a lost season for the Buccaneers, although an 0-4 start would leave very little room for error.
Green Bay's clearest path to a win is through Jordan Love rather than the ground game. The Packers are tied for 4th in passing offense at 266.7 yards per game but rank 32nd in rushing at 48.7. Love has thrown for 844 yards through 3 games, while Christian Watson leads the team with 284 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. Tampa Bay has been strong overall on defense, ranking 6th in total yards allowed and 2nd against the run, which makes a pass-heavy approach even more likely.
That matchup gives the Over a better chance than Green Bay's season scoring average suggests. If Tampa Bay takes away the run, Love should be forced into higher volume. Green Bay has enough speed outside to generate chunk gains even if sustained drives remain inconsistent.
Daniels went 0-for-3 with an interception after replacing Mayfield against Minnesota, so there is real uncertainty around his first start. Tampa Bay believes his mobility can help him escape pressure and keep drives alive. That matters against a Green Bay defense allowing 340.7 yards and 30.3 points per game. The Packers also rank 29th on third-down defense and have allowed touchdowns on 83.3% of opponent red-zone trips.
Tampa Bay received good news when Chris Godwin returned to full practice Thursday, while Bucky Irving remained limited. Green Bay has several concerns inside its offensive line, with Aaron Banks and Jacob Monk missing both Wednesday and Thursday practices. The Packers have added veteran help, but the group is still being reshuffled. Green Bay also lost Jayden Reed for the season because of a neck injury.
That uncertainty keeps the projection from moving too far above the market. Still, 38.5 is low enough that a 23-16 score only needs one additional field goal to clear it. With Green Bay's pass volume, Tampa Bay's potential for better field position at home, and both defenses carrying exploitable weaknesses, Over 38.5 is my preferred prediction.
