Sunday’s NFL Wild Card Weekend betting slate kicks off with the Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills in the first game of a tripleheader of playoff action. Unfortunately, this matchup is the least exciting of the three due to the Dolphins injury concerns that has the team starting a third string quarterback against Josh Allen and the high flying Bills. Nonetheless, we have assembled a Dolphins vs Bills parlay for the occasion.
Skylar Thompson will get the start for Miami and as a result, oddsmakers have the Dolphins as heavy +13.5 underdogs. Making this a game that appears to be a foregone conclusion barring a massive Cinderella upset led by Thompson and his teammates.
Still, there is value on the Bills vs Dolphins board and particularly in the player prop market. Despite the lopsided matchup, there are three value bets to consider when building a Same Game Parlay for Saturday afternoon’s game.
| Pick 1 | Over 43.5 Points (-110) |
| Pick 2 | Josh Allen Over 255.5 Passing Yards (-110) |
| Pick 3 | James Cook Over 50.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-115) |
| Dolphins vs Bills Parlay Odds | +350 (Bet $20 to win $70) |
NFL
Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills
Team Stats
Passing
Offense/Defense
| MIA | Passing | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 344 | CMP | 329 |
| 490 | ATT | 480 |
| 70.2 | CMP% | 68.5 |
| 222.6 | YDS/GM | 227.8 |
| 6.9 | Y/A | 7.1 |
| 5.9 | NY/A | 6.2 |
| 8 | INT | 13 |
| 35 | SK | 32 |
Defense/Offense
| MIA | Passing | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 292 | CMP | 278 |
| 448 | ATT | 431 |
| 65.2 | CMP% | 64.5 |
| 205 | YDS/GM | 238.8 |
| 6.9 | Y/A | 7.9 |
| 6.0 | NY/A | 7.5 |
| 7 | INT | 5 |
| 28 | SK | 13 |
Rushing
Offense/Defense
| MIA | Rushing | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | G | 14 |
| 368 | ATT | 354 |
| 1420 | YDS | 1648 |
| 101.4 | Y/G | 117.7 |
| 3.9 | Y/A | 4.7 |
| 9 | TD | 11 |
| 0.6 | TD/G | 0.8 |
Defense/Offense
| MIA | Rushing | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | G | 14 |
| 337 | ATT | 396 |
| 1450 | YDS | 1831 |
| 103.6 | Y/G | 130.8 |
| 4.3 | Y/A | 4.6 |
| 12 | TD | 28 |
| 0.9 | TD/G | 2 |
Special Teams
Offense/Defense
| MIA | Special Teams | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | Punts/Ret | 18 |
| 213 | Punt/Yds | 162 |
| 9.7 | Punt/Y/R | 9.0 |
| 21 | Kick Off/Ret | 20 |
| 582 | Kick Off/Yds | 639 |
| 27.7 | Kick Off/Y/rt | 32.0 |
Defense/Offense
| MIA | Special Teams | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Punts/Ret | 25 |
| 202 | Punt/Yds | 281 |
| 11.2 | Punt/Y/R | 11.2 |
| 15 | Kick Off/Ret | 16 |
| 386 | Kick Off/Yds | 415 |
| 25.7 | Kick Off/Y/rt | 25.9 |
Scoring
Offense/Defense
| MIA | Scoring | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | G | 14 |
| 9 | RshTD | 11 |
| 19 | RecTD | 23 |
| 28 | FGM | 17 |
| 32 | FGA | 22 |
| 19.7 | Pts/G | 22.1 |
Defense/Offense
| MIA | Scoring | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | G | 14 |
| 12 | RshTD | 28 |
| 16 | RecTD | 25 |
| 33 | FGM | 21 |
| 38 | FGA | 26 |
| 22.3 | Pts/G | 31.8 |
Team Advanced Defense
| MIA | Defense | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 24.0% | Bltz% | 17.7% |
| 9.1% | Hrry% | 7.7% |
| 7.6% | QB Hit% | 9.8% |
| 21.6% | QB Prss% | 22.6% |
Injuries
| Name | Position | Injury | Status | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Shaheen | TE | Knee | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Austin Jackson | OL | Ankle | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Brandon Shell | OT | Knee | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Byron Jones | CB | Achilles | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Cethan Carter | TE | Concussion | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Emmanuel Ogbah | DE | Tricep | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Eric Fisher | OT | Calf | Out | 01/15/23 |
| John Lovett | FB | Knee | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Justin Zimmer | DT | Undisclosed | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Kendall Lamm | OT | Ankle | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Liam Eichenberg | OL | Hand | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Myles Gaskin | RB | Mcl | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Nik Needham | CB | Achilles | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Noah Igbinoghene | CB | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Porter Gustin | LB | Undisclosed | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Raheem Mostert | RB | Thumb | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Tanner Conner | TE | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Trey Flowers | LB | Foot | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Trill Williams | CB | Knee (acl) | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | Concussion | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Jaelan Phillips | LB | Wrist | Questionable | 01/13/23 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | Ankle | Questionable | 01/13/23 |
| Alec Ingold | FB | Thumb | Probable | 01/15/23 |
| Bradley Chubb | OLB | Ankle | Probable | 01/15/23 |
| Brandon Jones | S | Knee (acl) | Scrambled | 01/15/23 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | WR | Hip | Probable | 01/15/23 |
| Greg Little | OT | Achilles | Probable | 01/12/23 |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. | RB | Illness | Probable | 01/13/23 |
| Kader Kohou | CB | Thumb | Probable | 01/12/23 |
| Skylar Thompson | QB | Ankle | Probable | 01/12/23 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | QB | Knee | Probable | 01/15/23 |
| Terron Armstead | OT | Toe/pectoral/knee/hip | Probable | 01/15/23 |
| Name | Position | Injury | Status | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baylon Spector | LB | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Christian Benford | CB | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Ike Boettger | G | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Jared Mayden | S | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Tommy Sweeney | TE | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/15/23 |
| Jordan Poyer | S | Knee | Questionable | 01/13/23 |
| Cam Lewis | CB | Forearm | Probable | 01/12/23 |
| Damar Hamlin | S | Chest | Scrambled | 01/15/23 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | WR | Hamstring | Scrambled | 01/15/23 |
| Jake Kumerow | WR | Ankle | Scrambled | 01/15/23 |
| Jamison Crowder | WR | Ankle | Scrambled | 01/15/23 |
| Jordan Phillips | DT | Shoulder | Scrambled | 01/15/23 |
| Josh Allen | QB | Elbow/ankle | Probable | 01/12/23 |
| Micah Hyde | S | Neck | Scrambled | 01/15/23 |
| Tommy Doyle | OT | Knee (acl) | Scrambled | 01/15/23 |
| Von Miller | LB | Knee | Scrambled | 01/15/23 |
Betting Trends
| MIA | Betting Trends | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 1-2-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 3-0-0 |
| 2-1-0 | ATS W/L/P | 2-1-0 |
| 17.33 | Avg Score | 34 |
| 18.33 | Avg Opp Score | 21.67 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 0-3-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 3-0-0 |
| 2-1-0 | ATS W/L/P | 1-2-0 |
| 22.33 | Avg Score | 29 |
| 26 | Avg Opp Score | 21.33 |
| MIA | Betting Trends | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 1-4-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 5-0-0 |
| 3-2-0 | ATS W/L/P | 3-2-0 |
| 19.6 | Avg Score | 29.2 |
| 22 | Avg Opp Score | 17.4 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 1-4-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 4-1-0 |
| 2-3-0 | ATS W/L/P | 1-3-1 |
| 23.8 | Avg Score | 29.6 |
| 28.6 | Avg Opp Score | 24 |
| MIA | Betting Trends | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 5-5-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 8-2-0 |
| 6-4-0 | ATS W/L/P | 3-6-1 |
| 25 | Avg Score | 27.9 |
| 23.4 | Avg Opp Score | 20.5 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 3-7-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 9-1-0 |
| 4-6-0 | ATS W/L/P | 5-4-1 |
| 22.7 | Avg Score | 32.8 |
| 30.9 | Avg Opp Score | 17.4 |
Head to Head
Teams Last 10
Pick 1: Over 43.5 Points (-110)
The Bills and Dolphins combined for 50.5 in their two previous games this season and this game should also be a fairly high scoring one. Even with the Dolphins rolling out their backup in Thompson.
Miami and New England combined for 44 points in Week 17 with Thompson taking all of the snaps at QB. Expect this game to sit around the mid 40s with the Bills putting up plenty of points and the Miami Dolphins doing their part with a few chunk plays to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
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Pick 2: Josh Allen Over 255.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Josh Allen’s passing numbers in his two games against the Dolphins were ones you typically see in the college game or on Madden. 400 yards and two touchdowns in the 21-19 early season loss in Miami before a 300 yard, four touchdown day in their late season win over Miami in Buffalo.
Allen historically puts up big numbers against Miami. In 10 career games, he’s averaging 268.4 passing yards and has 27 passing touchdowns against his AFC East rivals.
The winter weather dropping the number is a concern but Allen’s 300 yard day in the snow and cold against Miami recently is a good indicator that there is value in him having another big day. If Miami keeps this game somewhat respectable into the fourth quarter, Allen should clear his passing yardage total yet again against a Dolphins defense he has had success against this season.
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Pick 3: James Cook Over 50.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-115)
Rookie James Cook celebrated his alma mater Georgia winning their second straight National Championship and has a good chance to contribute to a Super Bowl run in the Buffalo Bills backfield in the coming weeks.
Cook – a speedy back who can do damage on the ground and in the flat as a pass catcher – is growing into his role in the Bills offense at the perfect time. Cook rushed for 99 yards in Week 17 against the Bears before ending the regular season with a 49 yard rushing outing.
The 50.5 rushing and receiving number gives a nice value should Cook bust out a catch and run on Sunday. Cook has cleared this number in the last two games and should feature heavily in the second half should the Bills be in a position to salt away a lead against the underdog Dolphins.
For those who can’t parlay rushing and receiving totals, the 35.5 rushing yards line is another high value play that should cash.
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Dolphins vs Bills Preview
Quarterback isn’t the only area where the Dolphins offense has injury concerns. Left tackle Terron Armstead is dealing with multiple nagging injuries and is likely out for beyond this week should the Dolphins manage to advance. Running back Raheem Mostert has also missed practice all week while dealing with a broken thumb.
Skylar Thompson will hope that his performance in front of a playoff audience is more successful than his outings in preparation for this moment. Miami failed to score an offensive touchdown in Week 18 against the Jets and has just two touchdowns in games where Thompson has attempted 30 or more passes.
Buffalo’s defense will be eager to face a favorable matchup to open their hopeful Super Bowl run. The Bills defense allowed the second fewest points in the NFL this season with 17.9 points per game conceded.
Miami will need a special performance from wideout Tyreek Hill if they are to challenge Buffalo on Sunday. Hill had 69 yards of offense in their recent meeting in Buffalo, scoring a touchdown but will need an even bigger day to give his team a chance as massive underdogs.
