Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans Pick & Prediction – 10/6/2024

Bills vs Texans Betting Odds

Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Betting Preview

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills faceoff against C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans. The Bills enter the game as a slight favorite (-120) despite being on the road. Buffalo is currently favored by -1.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 47.5.

Houston's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #3 in the NFL at 358 yards per game. The quality of their passing attack has led to much of their success. The Texans 275 yards per game through the air ranks #2-best in football this year. It's easy to see why they've done so well through the air when you notice the quality of their offensive line, which ranks #10 in the league in pass protection. This presents a decided advantage for Houston given that the Bills haven't had much success in stopping the pass this year, giving up 6.04 yards per target (#31-worst in the NFL). When it comes to their defense, the Texans check in at #8 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 176 yards per game against Houston this year (#27 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #31 against them with 3.77 yards per ground attempt. This Texans defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, keeping them in check at just 15 yards per game (#2-best in the league). A strong argument could be made that their worst position group is their defensive tackles, who rank just #30 in the league when it comes to run-stopping.

Buffalo's biggest weakness has been their run defense, ranking #30 in the league while allowing 5.35 yards per attempt on the ground. The Bills safeties have played a big part in their inability to stop the run, ranking #2-worst in the NFL by this measure. In terms of their offense, the Bills have ranked #15 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 217 yards per game (#14 in football). On the ground they've ranked #16 with 4.24 yards per carry.

Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Prediction

Final Score: Buffalo Bills 26.28 vs Houston Texans 23.82

**NOTE: The above stats and rankings are adjusted for context based on sample size and matchup factors. Note that, by design, these stats will not match up with those you find on stat pages and leaderboards around the industry, however are more predictive for ranking stats and for contextualizing the data. Statistics include data from the beginning of the 2023 NFL season to the present time in the 2024 season to allow a more representative sample size.

Get daily NFL picks here.