Buccaneers vs Cowboys Prop Predictions: Best TNF Player Props for Week 5
Updated October 7, 2026
*Note: The prices above are from Polymarket and can change as the market moves.
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Updated October 7, 2026
*Note: The prices above are from Polymarket and can change as the market moves.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys meet on Thursday Night Football in Week 5, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.
Dallas enters at 2-2 after rallying for a 34-30 road win over Houston, while Tampa Bay dropped to 0-4 after a tight 17-14 loss to Green Bay with starting quarterback Baker Mayfield sidelined by a thumb injury. Rather than taking a side or total in this one, though, I think the better value may be in the player prop markets.
Below, I’ll break down my three favorite Buccaneers vs Cowboys player prop predictions for Thursday night, targeting Bucky Irving, Dak Prescott and Jake Ferguson, along with where our ATS Quantitative Model sees an edge at the current market prices.
Dallas Has Struggled Against the Run
Dallas has struggled against the run, allowing 150.3 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry. The advanced numbers back that up, with the Cowboys ranking 23rd in stuff rate (14.5%) and 26th in explosive-run rate allowed, as 13.4% of designed runs have gone for 10+ yards.
Irving's Workload Has Picked Up
After getting just eight carries in Week 1, Irving has handled 17, 15 and 16 carries over his last three games. He turned that workload into 89 yards against Cleveland and 61 against Green Bay, and he's now averaging 60.3 rushing yards per game. Another 15-17 carries should give him a pretty reasonable path to 50.
Tampa Bay Could Lean on Irving Again
With Baker Mayfield still sidelined, Jalon Daniels is expected to make just his second career NFL start. Tampa Bay gave Irving 16 carries in Daniels' first start, and I'd expect another run-heavy approach on a short week. Irving is also averaging 2.9 yards after contact per attempt with 11 forced missed tackles.
Recommended Prediction:
Irving 50+ Rush Yds
Current Market Price:
53¢
Model Over Probability:
59.4%
Market-Implied Probability:
53.0%
Model Edge:
+6.4%
Buy Up To:
58¢
Model Trade Confidence:
78/100
Tampa Bay's Defense Has Quietly Played Well
Tampa Bay may be 0-4, but the defense has been much better than that record suggests. The Bucs rank 10th in overall defensive efficiency and have held three straight opponents below 300 total yards, including Green Bay to just 283 last week.
Dak Has Needed Heavy Volume to Clear This Number
Prescott has thrown for 279, 276 and 335 yards over his last three games, but he's also attempted 31, 40 and 45 passes. He needed 40 attempts to barely clear this number against Baltimore, and at his season average of 7.1 yards per attempt, he'd need roughly 39 attempts to reach 275 against the Bucs.
Game Script Could Lead to Less Volume for Dak
Dallas fell behind Houston by 10 at halftime last week, forcing Prescott to throw 45 times in a 34-30 comeback win. This matchup sets up differently with Jalon Daniels making his second NFL start for a struggling Tampa Bay offense. If Dallas plays from ahead, Dak could see considerably less volume, especially in the second half.
Recommended Prediction:
Prescott U275 Pass Yds
Current Market Price:
56¢
Model Under Probability:
61.1%
Market-Implied Probability:
56.0%
Model Edge:
+5.1%
Buy Up To:
60¢
Model Trade Confidence:
72/100
Ferguson Is a Red-Zone Threat
Ferguson has four red-zone targets and three touchdowns through four games, accounting for 21.1% of Dallas' red-zone pass attempts. That role isn't new, either, as he led all NFL tight ends with 13 targets inside the 10-yard line last season.
Tampa Bay Has Had Trouble With Tight Ends
The Bucs have been solid defensively overall, but tight ends have found success against them. Green Bay's tight ends combined for eight catches, 71 yards and a touchdown last week, while Mike Gesicki had 78 yards and a score in Week 1 and Harold Fannin Jr. added 54 yards in Week 2.
Dallas Should Have Scoring Opportunities
Dallas is averaging 30.5 points per game and ranks second in the NFL in scoring, while converting an NFL-best 81.3% of its red-zone trips into touchdowns. Ferguson already has three touchdowns on just 12 receptions, showing how much of his value comes near the goal line.
Recommended Prediction:
Ferguson Anytime TD
Current Market Price:
29¢
Model TD Probability:
35.8%
Market-Implied Probability:
29.0%
Model Edge:
+6.8%
Buy Up To:
35¢
Model Trade Confidence:
81/100
The Cowboys enter Thursday Night Football priced as a heavy favorite on Polymarket, trading at 81¢ to win outright. Dallas is also favored by 7.5 points, with the Cowboys trading at 52¢ to cover the number, while the total is set at 47.5 points with the Over priced at 50.5¢.
That lines up pretty well with our full Buccaneers vs Cowboys prediction, where we're backing Dallas -7.5. A Cowboys win and cover should mean plenty of scoring opportunities for America's Team, which helps our Jake Ferguson anytime touchdown prediction.
It could also help the Dak Prescott Under if Dallas builds a lead and starts trying to drain the clock, rather than asking Prescott to throw 40+ times again.
That same game script creates a little more risk for Bucky Irving, since falling behind early could cut into his carries. Still, Tampa Bay is unlikely to abandon the run too quickly with Jalon Daniels making just his second NFL start, especially with run defense being one of Dallas' biggest weaknesses.
For more Week 5 game previews, analysis and model projections, check out our NFL predictions.
