The Atlanta Falcons (3–7) will visit the New Orleans Saints (2–8) at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans on Sunday. With both teams struggling this season, this game offers an opportunity to get a rare win despite dealing with a ton of quarterback issues on both sides. Here, I break down this NFC South matchup and give you my Falcons vs Saints prediction for Sunday.
Our Falcons vs Saints Pick
- Pick: Atlanta Falcons Moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
- Date & Time: Sunday, November 23, 2025, at 4:25 PM ET
- Venue: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
The biggest storyline in this game revolves around Atlanta’s injuries and how they retool their offense under a new-look quarterback setup. Michael Penix Jr. had been leading the Falcons this season, but has been placed on injured reserve due to a left-knee bone bruise. That loss is compounded by the absence of Drake London at wide receiver, who is also out due to a knee issue. These losses will force Kirk Cousins back into action under center.
The Saints have the home crowd in this game, but that is about all they have going for them. Their 2–8 record is the product of poor performances both on offense and defense. But they have one of their best chances of the season to get a win here, as they take on a banged-up Falcons team at home. The question is whether or not the Saints can execute well enough to take advantage of that opportunity.
Quarterback Play
With Penix out, Kirk Cousins takes over under center for the Falcons again. Cousins has seen limited action this season, completing 32 of 52 passes for 250 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. His experience gives Atlanta a chance to manage the game and lean more on their running backs, but Cousins has struggled with turnovers in the past and has to avoid that again here.
New Orleans will go with Tyler Shough at quarterback this week. Shough has seen limited action so far this season and has had his share of growing pains in his rookie season. Games like this one will provide him with valuable reps that he will try to turn into success as this season winds down.
Betting Trends
- Atlanta is 4-5-1 against the spread so far this season.
- New Orleans is 3-7 against the spread entering Week 12.
- The under has hit 7 times in 10 games involving the Saints this year.
- The under is 5-4-1 in Falcons games coming into this matchup.
Falcons vs Saints Model Projection
- Score Projection: Falcons 23 – Saints 20
- Win Probability: Falcons 58%, Saints 42%
Final Thoughts
I’m not convinced that Kirk Cousins is that much worse than Michael Penix Jr. at this stage of their careers. Penix has struggled to move the ball through the air consistently this season. As long as Cousins can avoid too many turnovers, Atlanta has a fighting chance in this game. I’ll take the Falcons as a slight underdog to get the win on the moneyline.
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