The second game on this year’s NBA Christmas Day slate features one of the greatest players in league history against someone who may earn that title one day. LeBron James will lead the Los Angeles Lakers into a road game against Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks, in a contest where both teams are searching for a much-needed win. In our NBA picks for Christmas Day, we break down this Lakers vs Mavericks Christmas game.
Lakers vs Mavericks Betting Pick
| ℹ️ The Pick: | Over 225.5 |
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This game will be played at American Airlines Center at 2:30 PM ET on Sunday, December 25, 2022.
Why Bet the Over:
✅ The Los Angeles Lakers have been dismal defensively without Anthony Davis available. I have this game at 225 points before factoring in the Davis injury, with a higher total after factoring in his injury-related absence.
✅ Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber are both banged up for the Mavericks, which could be a positive for them offensively right now. Finney-Smith is shooting under 35% from three-point range this season, and a reduction in his usage could help the Mavs hit more consistently from the perimeter.
✅ Both of these teams have gone over the total in more than half of their games this year. The Lakers have the second highest rate of overs in the league this year, while the Mavericks are hitting their overs at over 55% on the year as well.
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
Dallas Mavericks
Team Stats Per Game
Team Stats Per 100 Poss
Offense/Defense
| LAL | Team Stats Per 100 Poss | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Games | 27 |
| 40.8 | FG | 41.2 |
| 87.1 | FGA | 90.8 |
| .468 | FG% | .454 |
| 11.7 | 3Pt-FG | 13.4 |
| 33.7 | 3Pt-FGA | 37.4 |
| .347 | 3Pt% | .358 |
| 29.1 | 2Pt-FG | 27.8 |
| 53.4 | 2Pt-FGA | 53.4 |
| .545 | 2Pt% | .520 |
| 19.2 | FT | 16.9 |
| 24.5 | FTA | 22.1 |
| .780 | FT% | .765 |
| 9.5 | ORB | 12.1 |
| 32.2 | DRB | 31.6 |
| 41.7 | TRB | 43.7 |
| 26.3 | AST | 27.4 |
| 8.0 | STL | 8.4 |
| 5.1 | BLK | 4.1 |
| 13.8 | TOV | 14.1 |
| 17.1 | PF | 19.3 |
| 112.5 | PTS | 112.7 |
Defense/Offense
| LAL | Team Stats Per 100 Poss | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Games | 27 |
| 43.0 | FG | 43.3 |
| 90.3 | FGA | 88.9 |
| .477 | FG% | .488 |
| 13.7 | 3Pt-FG | 13.4 |
| 37.2 | 3Pt-FGA | 35.5 |
| .368 | 3Pt% | .377 |
| 29.3 | 2Pt-FG | 29.9 |
| 53.1 | 2Pt-FGA | 53.4 |
| .553 | 2Pt% | .561 |
| 15.7 | FT | 18.4 |
| 19.9 | FTA | 24.0 |
| .788 | FT% | .767 |
| 11.1 | ORB | 11.3 |
| 33.9 | DRB | 34.4 |
| 45.1 | TRB | 45.7 |
| 28.6 | AST | 25.8 |
| 8.0 | STL | 8.4 |
| 4.2 | BLK | 5.5 |
| 14.9 | TOV | 14.4 |
| 21.0 | PF | 19.4 |
| 115.4 | PTS | 118.5 |
Four Factors
Offense/Defense
| LAL | Four Factors | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| .536 | eFG% | .527 |
| 12.4 | TOV% | 12.3 |
| 21.9 | RB% | 74.0 |
| .220 | FT/FGA | .186 |
Defense/Offense
| LAL | Four Factors | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| .552 | eFG% | .563 |
| 13.1 | TOV% | 12.6 |
| 74.3 | RB% | 26.3 |
| .174 | FT/FGA | .207 |
Analytics
| LAL | Analytics | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pythag Wins | 18 |
| 16 | Pythag Losses | 9 |
| -2.89 | Margin Of Victory | 5.81 |
| 112.5 | O Rtg | 118.5 |
| 115.4 | D Rtg | 112.7 |
| 98.6 | Pace | 99.7 |
| .282 | FTr | .270 |
| .387 | 3PAr | .399 |
| .574 | TS% | .596 |
Betting Trends
| LAL | Betting Trends | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 0-3-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 2-1-0 |
| 0-3-0 | ATS W/L/P | 1-2-0 |
| 118 | Avg Score | 107.33 |
| 132.67 | Avg Opp Score | 107 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 1-2-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 2-1-0 |
| 1-2-0 | ATS W/L/P | 1-2-0 |
| 116 | Avg Score | 113.67 |
| 127 | Avg Opp Score | 109.67 |
| LAL | Betting Trends | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 2-3-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 3-2-0 |
| 1-4-0 | ATS W/L/P | 3-2-0 |
| 119.8 | Avg Score | 110.2 |
| 124.6 | Avg Opp Score | 106.2 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 1-4-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 3-2-0 |
| 1-4-0 | ATS W/L/P | 2-2-1 |
| 116.6 | Avg Score | 115.2 |
| 128 | Avg Opp Score | 109.2 |
| LAL | Betting Trends | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 3-7-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 5-5-0 |
| 2-7-1 | ATS W/L/P | 4-5-1 |
| 117.8 | Avg Score | 109.8 |
| 123.7 | Avg Opp Score | 111.5 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 5-5-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 6-4-0 |
| 5-5-0 | ATS W/L/P | 4-5-1 |
| 119.6 | Avg Score | 111.1 |
| 123.6 | Avg Opp Score | 105.8 |
Head to Head
Teams Last 10
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Los Angeles Lakers
The Los Angeles Lakers come into Christmas Day outside of the top-10 in the Western Conference on the season. They have done a remarkably poor job on the defensive end of the floor, and that has only become worse with Anthony Davis out due to injury. Here, the Lakers will look to turn things around on defense to give themselves a chance to beat Luka Doncic and the Mavericks.
Davis’ absence makes things so much harder on the entirety of the Lakers defense. Without their anchor in the paint, the Lakers not only give up more interior buckets, but they have to pinch in to help inside more frequently. That has made it easier for opposing shooters to hit from the outside, as we saw against the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday when Sacramento dropped 134 points on Los Angeles while hitting 17 threes.
Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks have been a bit of a disappointment of their own in the Western Conference this year. They are in the top-10 in the standings, but not by much, as they are currently in the play-in tournament slots out West. Here, the Mavs are substantial favorites to get into the win column on Christmas Day to help themselves in their quest to climb in the standings.
The question for the Mavs every game is who, if anyone, will help Luka Doncic carry the scoring load. With no Jalen Brunson there to help him anymore, Doncic has not been able to enjoy a consistent second option behind him. If he can get help from someone like Tim Hardaway Jr. or Reggie Bullock in this game, the Mavs could cruise to a win over the struggling Lakers.
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