Jonas Valanciunas Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-105/-125).
Pros
- Jonas Valanciunas has successfully made 67.8% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games, 12.2% more than he’s sunk in all games this season.
- The matchup vs. Kristaps Porzingis is a strong one for field goals; when Porzingis is on the road other starting Cs this year, they have sunk a monstrous 6.7 baskets per game (87th percentile).
- Offensive rebounds maintain possession and result in bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Pelicans grade out 8th-best in in the league as the home team with 11.1 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.
- Jonas Valanciunas stands to see an increase in production in all stat categories as a result of having the home court advantage in this contest.
Cons
- Jonas Valanciunas has accumulated 2.5 personal fouls per game with the home court advantage this year, ranking in the 88th percentile — among the NBA’s most-whistled.
- In terms of shots from the field, the 3rd-least aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Pelicans.
- The Pelicans will likely experience a decrease in plays in this game from squaring off against the least up-tempo pace away offense in the league over the last 15 games (the Boston Celtics).
Prop Bet & Prediction: Jonas Valanciunas is projected for 8.7 Points
